JOIN USWhen India celebrates the World Population Day today (July 11), there is heightened optimism on the demographic front than a few decades earlier.
Undoubtedly, India accounting for 17 per cent of the world’s population has significant influence on deciding the demographic future of the world. The population projection published by United Nations last month has further brought down the size of India’s future population indicating faster changes in demographic scenario in India.
According to the latest report, India would overtake China around 2030, a decade later than what was projected in 2010. Moreover the size of India population will increase only by another 0.4 billion to reach 1.64 billion around 2060. However, the overall demographic picture in India conceals facts than revealing the truth within the country. The wide variation existing across regions of the country is a matter of serious concern. The demographic changes will have definite implications for the economic and social changes in any society.
Little optimism
The average number of children per woman in India has reached 2.4 in 2011 close to the replacement level of 2.1. At the same time, the fertility level varies from as low as 1.7 children per woman in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal to Andhra Pradesh to 3.6 in Bihar. Interestingly, all the southern states in India record levels of fertility below 2. At the other extreme the northern states like Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh record fertility levels above 3. These states also account for around 40 per cent of India’s population. Thus even while there is optimism in the demographic front in India, this is a country with one of the highest demographic heterogeneities in the world.
It is also important to mention that the demographic changes did not lead to simultaneous improvement in the health scenario in the country. The infant mortality rate of 44 in India is quite high going by any standard. Even in this case there is huge north-south difference. More importantly the demographic changes also go hand in hand with strong son preference leading to adverse sex ratio in the country. Demographic changes in India are also opening up new economic opportunities. As such, the country will have an age structure with fewer people in the younger ages compared to the working age group population. This provides unique opportunities for the country in terms of economic advancement. Studies have observed that those states undergoing rapid demographic changes are also experiencing rapid economic growth.
It is also argued that even with all the deficits in the human capital development and policy failures, the demographic change itself is able to make substantial contribution to the economic changes in the country. It means that not only in terms of demographic factors but even in economic terms the diversity across states will widen in future which will have serious adverse impact.
The demographic heterogeneity, is also leading to huge inter-state migration. There has been relatively large inflow of migrants from the northern belt having high fertility rate to the southern region with below replacement level of fertility particularly in unskilled occupation. These migrants are generally drawn from less privileged sections both in terms of caste and class hierarchy. Although migration as such may be development driven there is the possibility of increased conflict and unrest in the destination regions in future.
In conclusion, India’s demographic pattern generates a broad optimism but also strange paradoxes. Undoubtedly the higher population growth in some parts of the country is a matter of concern. It creates unbalanced economic growth pattern and recent experiences show the potential for larger migration of unskilled labourers from north to demographically advanced southern states. Therefore, further enhancement of demographic advantage depends upon the faster demographic changes in these states. At the same time, the demographic changes provide other major challenges to the nation. It is important that the government and the people at large pledge themselves to take care of these emanating challenges.
(The writer heads population research centre at ISEC, Bangalore)