Himachal Pradesh may break pro-incumbency tradition

The people of Himachal Pradesh have time and again voted in favour of the ruling party in the state during the Lok Sabha elections.

The Congress in 2004, under Virbhadra Singh as chief minister, won three out of four Lok Sabha seats. Five years later, with BJP’s Prem Kumar Dhumal as chief minister, it was the saffron party that won three of the four parliamentary seats. 

This time around, however, the empirical pattern of voting for the incumbent state regime may not hold good. Much of the baggage of the disrepute that the UPA-II carries could impact the Congress’ prospects in Himachal Pradesh, which goes to polls on May 6.

 The hugely exhibited NaMo chant, too, is a dampener for the ruling party in the state. Yet, the Congress cannot to be written off or discounted by any chant, however loud it may be.

Old warhorse and Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh is not unfamiliar with ruling the state and has the knack of winning seats for his party, perhaps better than his rivals. In Himachal Pradesh, it has always been a two-way contest between the Congress and BJP, leaving little room for other parties. 

These elections seem to be on a levelled playing ground,  with indications that the Congress may no longer have the same influence in the state to reproduce a three out of four result.

Kamal Kanta Batra, the Aam Aadmi Party candidate from Hamirpur, is proving to be someone who could spell trouble for the Congress and BJP. She is the mother of Kargil martyr Captain Vikram Batra, and has been able to strike an emotional chord with the local people. 

Former chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal is sweating it out for his son Anurag Thakur, also contesting from the Hamirpur constituency.

For Virbhadra and Dhumal, victory is a matter of maintaining their family prestige. 

The state chief minister, along with his son Vikramditya – the chief of the Youth Congress– is toiling hard for wife-mother and sitting MP Pratibha Singh from the Mandi constituency. BJP stalwart Shanta Kumar is also in the fray in what he says is his last election.

The Congress high command, however, trusts Virbhadra to pull out the desired numbers for the party. 

In the last Assembly elections, despite the controversy of a purported CD that left a corruption taint on him, Virbhadra quit his Union ministerial berth with an eye on the coveted chief ministerial seat, which he eventually won.

Even if the Congress does fair badly this election, it will have no immediate effect on the Virbhadra Singh government, which still has four more years left in power.

Local issues dominate

The Lok Sabha elections in the state are being fought increasingly on local issues, the credibility of candidates and their performance. Unemployment, bad roads and lack of infrastructure are issues dominating poll rhetoric. 

A prevailing monkey menace is also a matter of concern for the electorate, with political parties making promises to do whatever it takes to help distraught farmers save their crops.

While the campaigns of leaders across party lines orbit around criticising the UPA-II on what it delivered and did not, voters are seeking an increase in import duty to 100 per cent on apples, besides remunerative prices for crop produce.

Himachal Pradesh is dominated by the Rajput population, which constitutes 35 percent of the total, followed by SC at 23 per cent.