Syria optimistic, but faces uphill task

Damascus is once again optimistic. After several months of military reverses and political stalemate, there appears to be positive developments. On the military front, the Syrian army and allied Lebanese Shia Hizbollah forces are on the brink of capturing the strategic mountain town of Zabadani near the Lebanese border. A source close to Hizbollah told Deccan Herald, “Insurgents are being allowed to leave without their weapons.”

Once Zabadani is under control, government forces will hold almost the entire border with Lebanon and will be able to halt the flow of arms and foreign fighters from Lebanon into southern Syria where jihadi insurgents have been fighting government forces around the city of Deraa, near the Golan ceasefire line with Israel and the southern districts of the capital.

Government forces and Syrian Kurdish militia have also fended off attacks from Islamic State (IS) elements in the north east near the Turkish border while the Syrian army continues to hold about 70 per cent of Aleppo, Syria’s former commercial capital.
On the political front, the government has been given a boost by the nuclear deal between Iran and the six powers. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem, speaking to a conference on combating jihadi terrorism in Damascus last weekend, said the agreement strengthened Iran’s international standing.

He observed, “The stronger our allies are, the stronger we are.” He made this point sitting at a table flanked by Iranian Culture Minister Ali Jannati and Lebanese Hizbollah’s deputy chief Shaikh Naim Qassem. Damascus has been assured of the full support of Iran, Hizbollah and Russia.

There have also been major developments in the opposing camp. The US, its coalition partners, and Turkey have finally understood that IS, al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, and other radical jihadi factions constitute a major regional – and potentially global – menace and are prepared to tackle the jihadis who now constitute the majority of insurgents in Syria.

Last month representatives of Saudi Defence Minister Muhammad bin Salman, the king's favourite son and deputy crown prince, reportedly, met with Ali Mamlouk, chief security adviser of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The prince subsequently held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg. Saudi security forces have conducted a crack down on terrorist suspects, detaining more than 400 in recent months.

And, last weekend, Turkey’s air force launched for the first time attacks on IS in northern Syria and Iraq, authorised US warplanes to conduct raids against IS from the US base at Incirlik in the south, and rounded up 600 jihadi terrorist suspects across the country. Turkey’s sudden change of direction was prompted by deadly suicide bomb attack that last week killed 32 Turkish peace activists in a town on the border with Syria.

Shifting stands
Saudi Arabia and Turkey appear to have shifted their stands because IS has mounted “blow-back” attacks in both countries although Riyadh has provided funds, fighters, and weapons for jihadi groups and Ankara has allowed these essentials for the jihadi war effort to flow freely through Turkey into Syria and Iraq.

Saudi Arabia is the front of the puritan Wahhabi ideology adopted by the jihadis while the current Muslim fundamentalist Justice and Development Party Turkish government has provided jihadi fighters with training, refuge, and medical treatment and been a mainstay of Syria's expatriate political opposition which has no popular support inside Syria.

Both Saudi Arabia and Turkey should have been wary of the jihadis and expected there would be a price to pay for supporting them. Al-Qaeda, the parent of all jihadi groupings, seeks the overthrow of the Saudi monarchy and the eradication of Western influence and interests in West Asia. Turkey has long been a US ally and member of Nato.

As a result of the policy shifts in Riyadh and Ankara, US Secretary of State John Kerry is due to meet Gulf leaders and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in coming weeks with the aim of consolidating an all-out campaign against the jihadis and promoting negotiations between the Syrian government and its opponents.

The meeting with Lavrov could be particularly signifi-cant. Russian security expert, Vladimir Yevseev, who addressed the Damascus conference, told Deccan Herald, “Russia will continue to support Syria with arms” but asked, “What is all this talk of yes Bashar, no Bashar,” referring to Western and Syrian opposition demands for Assad to step down. “This war has to stop!” He echoed Putin’s longstanding demand for a halt to Saudi, Turkish, and Western support for jihadi factions and talks on a political solution.

Syrians consulted by Deccan Herald are optimistic about the possibility of a serious effort to contain and eliminate the jihadis accompanied by negotiations to end the deadlock over who is to govern their country. Economist Nabil Sukkar said he expected major developments by the end of the year.