Bihar Assembly Election 2025 | From poll strategist to game-changer? Prashant Kishor’s gamble explained

Patna: With the Bihar Assembly elections scheduled for November, the State's traditional bipolar contest between the ruling NDA and the Opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc is facing a new challenge in the face of a political strategist-turned-activist who is trying to be a politician —  Prashant Kishor and his political outfit, Jan Suraaj.

This will be a first in decades that Bihar voters will have a somewhat strong third face on almost each of the seats in the election for the 243-member State Assembly.

Kishor, the man who once had an important role in scripting electoral victories for both Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is now contesting all 243 seats. The Jan Suraaj chief is trying to frame the election as a moral crusade against Bihar's 'corrupt duopoly' of the last 35 years. The question is no longer if he will be a factor, but how his presence on virtually every seat in the State will fundamentally redraw the electoral map.

Disruption over ideology

Kishor is trying to work around a strategy which seems like a calculated departure from caste-based politics. With years of conducting a meticulous, grassroots 'padyatras', his campaign focuses squarely on governance, unemployment, and migration. These are some of the issues that resonate deeply with an estimated 7.5 crore young and first-time voters who have no memories of pre-Lalu-Nitish era and are visibly tired of the status quo.

His recent, aggressive move of leveling explosive corruption allegations against key leaders from the ruling NDA, including the biggest leader of BJP in the State Deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary, is a classic disruptive play.

Politicians from established parties in Bihar thrive on identity politics and create a vote base that is largely determined by caste, and Kishor is injecting the issue of integrity into the contest this time.

In his attempt to do that, he has also dared agencies to probe him, a move that amplifies his image as a fearless outsider. This can be seen as a parallel to what Narendra Modi did during the 2014 Lok Sabha poll campaign.

The vote-splitting math

It can be a point of discussion whether his success should be measured by the votes his party gets or the number of seats they manage to win. At this moment, Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party must be aiming to get a large share of the estimated 28 per cent of voters who did not support either the NDA or the Grand Alliance in the 2020 election, along with a slice from the mainstream blocs.

Targeting the NDA: As a Brahmin, Kishor’s moral high ground and pointed attacks on Nitish Kumar's 'Paltu Ram' image and the BJP's local leadership could chip away at the NDA’s crucial Upper Caste base and the disillusioned non-Yadav OBCs who feel neglected.

Hitting the I.N.D.I.A. Bloc: His consistent focus on the failures of the 'Lalu-Nitish era' and the dynasty politics of the RJD directly targets the educated, urban, and upwardly mobile youth — a segment Tejashwi Yadav has worked hard to win over. Any diversion of this youth vote could severely dent the I.N.D.I.A. bloc’s chances. 

Even if Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party manages to get a modest 5-7 per cent votes in these elections, it will certainly change the fortunes on many seats and eventually the composition of the Assembly. In this eventuality, Jan Suraaj will certainly act as a powerful spoiler in most of the marginal seats.

A kingmaker in the making?

While Kishor himself has declared his party will either finish 'first or last' and his place is either in the 'government or on the streets,' ground reports indicate a notable rise in his popularity.

In 2020, the difference in the final vote share between the two major alliances was razor-thin (less than 1%). Considering all these factors, even a small shift will either help NDA retain power by splitting the anti-incumbency vote, or allowing the I.N.D.I.A. bloc to surge ahead by dividing the NDA's base.

This would undeniably make Kishor the unlikely kingmaker of Bihar. Kishor and his party are looking at some handful of MLAs winning on their symbol and Jan Suraaj emerging as a force necessary to form government after the poll results.

Bihar Assembly Election 2025 is going to be a high-voltage and unpredictable three-cornered fight. Will this break Bihar's two-decade-old political duopoly? We all will know this on November 14.