Assembly elections 2023: Small parties may harm BJP, Congress prospects

New Delhi: It is not just internal sabotage, factionalism or rebellion that is troubling the Congress and the BJP in the five state elections but the presence of smaller parties with influence in pockets, which may play a role in close contests.

Parties like Hamar Raj Party (HRP), Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshiram), Gondwana Gantantra Party along with BSP, AAP, Samajwadi Party, JD(U), CPM, CPI, RLP and AIMIM may not win many seats or emerge kingmakers in the poll-bound states, but they could cut into votes of likely winners.

The catchment areas and voting blocs of most of these parties align with the Congress, which may bear more brunt than the BJP in the elections, especially in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The discontent among I.N.D.I.A parties for being overlooked is adding to Congress’ woes.

Hamar Raj Party, launched as the political arm of Sarva Adivasi Samaj led by former Congress leader Arvind Netam and fighting around 50 seats, has upset the calculations of Congress in Chhattisgarh where the latter is hoping to return to power. With a base among tribals, who voted overwhelmingly for the Congress in 2018, the HRP may queer its pitch in at least 29 ST reserved seats.

It is not only the Congress, the BJP may also get hit in the process. The party has fielded candidates in seven out of 12 seats in Bastar alone. Its confidence rises from the performance of former DGP Akbar Ram Korram who polled 23,000 votes as an Independent in Bhanupratappur in a bypoll which Congress won. Korram is now fighting as an HRP candidate.

Another party that could impact tribal votes is the Gondwana Gantantra Party, which has entered into an alliance with BSP in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.

BSP is also fighting in Rajasthan where it is on a “revenge mission” against Congress which inducted all its six MLAs. It has wooed some disgruntled Congress leaders, including a Sachin Pilot loyalist Wajid Khan Cheetah to contest in Masuda. Congress is wary of BSP’s presence as it could wean away Dalit votes, especially with Mayawati planning to hold half-a-dozen rallies in the state.

For the Congress, Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Party entering into an alliance with Chandrasekhar Azad-led Azaad Samaj Party - Kanshi Ram (ASP-K) could spell trouble as the two parties intend to bring Jats and Dalits under a single voting umbrella.

In Rajasthan, another Jat party JJP is also in the pitch where community members are in huge numbers. If the Bharat Tribal Party, which was earlier a Congress ally, can trouble Congress, the new entrant AIMIM could have some impact on Muslim votes.

For the Congress, its national partners like SP, AAP, JD(U), CPM and CPI are also creating trouble in the poll-bound states though they are minor players. SP made it clear its unhappiness over not being accommodated in Madhya Pradesh with its chief Akhilesh Yadav, who initially appeared smoking the peace pipe, piled on the Congress calling it ‘chaalu’ (cunning).

AAP and JD(U) too stepped up their attack on Congress after a lull, fielding candidates against Congress. In Madhya Pradesh, the I.N.D.I.A partners face each other in at least 92 seats — 26 seats have AAP and JD(U) together taking on Congress. SP has fielded over 70 candidates in the state.

In close contests, the votes garnered by these parties will have an impact. While Congress has not made much out of these contests, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has called SP, AAP and BSP “chunavi chidiya” (electoral migratory birds) which will return to Delhi and UP.

CPM and CPI, too, waited for Congress but the latter has not accommodated it in any states. In Rajasthan, CPM has two sitting seats while in Telangana, the parties could not come out with a compromise formula.