Lok Sabha elections 2024: Who will get the crown in the mother of all battles in Tamil Nadu's Coimbatore

Coimbatore: The April 19 electoral contest in this industrial city, also known for its communally sensitive nature, is an acid test for all three major political parties in Tamil Nadu as all of them have “invested heavily” in this prestigious seat.

The results will also have a bearing on the future course of politics in the state as the BJP pushes its way to alter the largely bi-polar Dravidian politics in Tamil Nadu.

Former Karnataka-cadre IPS officer K Annamalai of the BJP takes on DMK’s Ganapathi P Rajkumar, ‘Singai’ G Ramachandran (AIADMK), and NTK’s Kalamani Jagannathan in the high-stakes battle.

With a mix of enterprising Gounders and Naickers, Dalits, Thevars, and a sizable number of Muslims, Coimbatore has been AIADMK’s bastion for a very long time. The party-led alliance won all 10 seats in the 2021 elections that saw the DMK returning to power after a decade.

Credit: DH Illustration

While the campaign by Annamalai, who is branded as an “outsider” by the DMK and AIADMK, is aggressive as he paints both the Dravidian majors with the same brush of “corruption” and “nepotism”, speeches by Rajkumar and Ramachandran, both locals, are simple and to the point.

What’s at stake for DMK, AIADMK & BJP?

For the DMK, which last won Coimbatore in 1996 and was pushed to the third slot in 2014, the electoral fight is the most prestigious as it is under pressure to reverse the 2021 trend to deliver the message that Coimbatore has begun to trust the party under Chief Minister M K Stalin. The ruling party did sweep the 2022 civic body polls in the city and surrounding areas.

DMK, which had mostly allotted the seat to its alliance partners, got the seat for it from CPI (M) after it became clear that the BJP will field Annamalai, as it believes that defeating the ex-IPS officer in western Tamil Nadu will help send a strong message that the popularity of Dravidian parties hasn’t waned in Tamil Nadu.

DMK candidate Rajkumar is a former AIADMK mayor who joined the DMK in 2020, courtesy former minister V Senthil Balaji, who is currently in jail in a money laundering case. Balaji was tasked with rejuvenating the cadre and rebuilding the party in Coimbatore and other areas in the region.

On the other hand, the AIADMK is sweating it out with a ‘young’ IIM-Ahmedabad graduate to prove that Coimbatore still remains its stronghold and none can challenge the party in its home turf. The polls will also test the political acumen and maneuvering skills of its local strongman S P Velumani, who is clear he doesn’t want to cede any space to the BJP and keep the Gounder vote bank with the party.

For Annamalai and BJP, the contest in Coimbatore is crucial as they face pressure to validate with an electoral success their assertions that the party has grown in Tamil Nadu in the past few years, especially after the ex-IPS officer took over as the state unit chief in 2021.

The BJP believes with a young face like Annamalai, it can make inroads into the vote bank of both Dravidian parties, especially the AIADMK. Moreover, the BJP has been preparing the ground in Coimbatore for Annamalai since February 2023 when the party’s strongman C P Radhakrishnan was sent to Jharkhand as Governor.

All three parties have taken the fight quite seriously and are making every effort to emerge victorious, they have separate war rooms to monitor campaigns in various parts of the constituency and devise social media strategies.

Issues faced by people

Problems faced by small and medium business due to implementation of GST seven years ago, slowdown in global economy, and the Covid-19 pandemic, the decline of the pump-set and wet grinder sectors in the region, and the ever-fluctuating prices of cotton and raw materials are some of the issues that have put the BJP on the defensive. The ruling DMK has also earned the ire of businesses in and around Coimbatore over a steep increase in electricity tariff for commercial establishments after it came to power in 2021 and not taking efforts to save dying businesses.

Pothole-filled roads in interior areas of the constituency, lack of drinking water in many areas, and poor urban infrastructure are some of the civic issues raised by the people. There is also visible anti-incumbency against sitting CPI (M) MP P R Natarajan, which is likely to be cashed in by the BJP, whose pet topics like Hindutva, Ram Temple, and painting the Opposition as “anti-Hindu” have takers in this largely urban constituency.

“Annamalai will be the hotline between you (people of Coimbatore) and Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi.” This is how the BJP camp is structuring its campaign and projects the fight as one between the Dravidian ecosystem – a term coined by Annamalai to refer to the DMK and AIADMK – and the BJP.

How are parties devising their strategies?

DMK is banking on its party machinery, which underwent a major overhaul after the 2021 polls, cohesiveness, and arithmetic strength of the alliance, minority votes, government welfare scheme, and votes from all communities to reverse its 2021 loss and deliver a message to the BJP and Annamalai.

The party has deputed Industries Minister T R B Raaja to run the campaign and work among several communities and the industry to romp home from Coimbatore. The ruling party also believes the soft nature of Rajkumar, who was handpicked by Senthil Balaji who is credited with the 2022 civic poll victory, will bring a chunk of Gounder votes to its kitty.

AIADMK seems pretty strong in the rural belt of Sulur, and parts of Singanallur, from where its candidate Ramachandran hails, and its campaign targets both the DMK and BJP by accusing them of “shutting down” a large of MSMEs through their policies like GST and power tariff hike. Besides the Two Leaves symbol, Ramachandran is banking on Naickers and a section of minorities and Velumani’s groundwork.

‘BJP targets young and middle class voters’

Coimbatore, a traditional bastion of Congress and Left due to the influence of trade unions before the AIADMK breached it, is a communally sensitive city which had in the past witnessed clashes between Hindus and Muslims and a bomb blast in 1998, that claimed the lives of 58 people.

Since then, religious polarisation had helped the BJP to romp home in 1998 and 1999 with the help of AIADMK and DMK respectively and emerge the runner-up in 2014 with its nominee C P Radhakrishnan polling nearly 3.90 lakh votes in the 2014 polls when the party contested on its own without an alliance with Dravidian parties.

This time around, the BJP is attempting at a caste and class polarisation by wooing the middle-class and young voters, though the odds are stacked against it due to the strong influence of well-entrenched Dravidian parties whose core voters are unlikely to ditch them. It is also aiming at a chunk of the traditional AIADMK voters.

“I want to vote for Annamalai because he is young, bold, and aggressive. He doesn’t mince words while he attacks politicians. I am a first time voter, and I am happy to exercise my vote in favour of Annamalai,” Aravind, a second year college student, from Singanallur told DH.

However, Karthikeyan, an auto driver, and a Congressman, said he will vote for the DMK candidate, following the alliance dharma. “But I believe young people may vote for Annamalai. It looks like the fight in Coimbatore is very tough, and the winning margin may be less. Many people decide on who to vote for only at the last minute,” he added.

Besides BJP cadres from various parts of the state, several BJP leaders and functionaries from Karnataka are also camping in Coimbatore to garner votes for Annamalai in areas where Kannada-speakers are in a sizable chunk.

A good number of people whom DH spoke to believe that Narendra Modi was certain to become the Prime Minister for a third time and it would help Coimbatore if the MP were from BJP, but will it translate into votes is a million-dollar question.