Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024 | Tension increases among Maha Yuti & Maha Vikas Aghadi as state heads to polls

Mumbai: After five years of political instability and a see-saw game, Maharashtra is finally set to vote on Wednesday. However, tensions continue to mount among the two alliances - Maha Yuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi - due to the large number of rebels, independent candidates and multiple smaller parties and outfits, besides the widening caste-divide.

At the fag end of the campaign, the leaders of both sides exuded confidence in securing 170-plus in the 288-member Maharashtra Legislative Assembly - even as backroom channel talks have started for government formation.

With politics during the quarter of a century revolving around the four parties and two coalitions, the jump to six parties and two mega-coalitions, led by BJP and Congress respectively, makes it one of the most difficult elections to predict as the outcome of Lok Sabha polls cannot be taken as an indicator.

The BJP’s allies include Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP, the Congress sides are Uddhav Thackeray-headed Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP).

For Congress, the polls are extremely important as they would chart out the future course of the I.N.D.I.A. opposition bloc- because Thackeray and Pawar were the key allies of Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi.

On the other hand, for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after the reduction in the number of seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, winning a big state like Maharashtra, would mean further consolidation of NDA. To form government at the Centre, he had to depend on Nitish Kumar and N Chandrababu Naidu.

The elections would also decide who commands the real Shiv Sena - Shinde, the Chief Minister or Thackeray, the son of the party's founder, and also the real NCP - Ajit Pawar, who is the Deputy Chief Minister or his uncle Sharad Pawar, the founder.

For BJP’s Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis - it is to be seen whether the polls serve as a platform to make a comeback and occupy the top seat.

The Mahayuti launched the flagship Ladki Bahin Yojana, a cash-benefit scheme for women to neutralise rural-agricultural distress as the BJP did in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh.

While as of now Rs 1,500 per month is being given, they have assured to make it Rs 2,100 after winning polls. However, Gandhi and his allies have come out with a Mahalaxmi guarantee ensuring Rs 3,000 to women.

Different dynamics are at play in the five regions - Konkan, Western Maharashtra, North Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha.

The Maratha vs OBC reservation issue is a key factor in Marathwada and parts of Vidarbha. The two regions are also facing agrarian distress because of low MSP for soybean and cotton.

In North Maharashtra, reservation, soybeans and cotton would have some impact besides onions.

In coastal Konkan and Western Maharashtra the sugar belt would have a fierce fight and not many changes are expected.

Both alliances have planned booth-level meetings of workers on Tuesday to ensure that there is a seamless vote transfer, unlike the Lok Sabha polls.

To nullify the caste issue and Dalit-Muslim voting en masse for MVA, Modi came out with ‘ek hai toh safe hai’ slogan while Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s catchphrase ‘batange to katange’. Union Home Minister Amit Shah amplified both. This, however, has made Ajit Pawar comfortable.

Gandhi, on the other hand, continued on the ‘Save Constitution’ narrative and targeted businessman Gautam Adani, considered close to Modi. Thackeray went full throttle over the ‘gaddar’ narrative against Shinde while Sharad Pawar too used the word against Ajit Pawar’s aides.

Leader of the Opposition in Rajya Sabha Mallikarjun Kharge, who is the Congress President,  has countered the BJP narratives with "kisko batonge, kisko katonge" and "kaun safe nahi hai".

Assembly Elections 2024 | The Maharashtra Assembly polls will take place against the backdrop of a fractured political landscape in the western state where the Shiv Sena and NCP will be going up against the Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar factions, even as the BJP and Congress try to make their mark. Meanwhile, in Jharkhand, the JMM faces a new challenge after Hemant Soren's recent arrest and Champai, a longstanding party member, joining the BJP. The Haryana election resulted in a shock loss for Congress, which was looking to galvanize on the Lok Sabha poll performance, while J&K also saw the grand old party eventually stepping away from the cabinet, with Omar Abdullah's JKNC forming government. It remains to be seen if the upcoming polls help BJP cement its position further or provide a fillip to I.N.D.I.A. Check live updates and track the latest coverage, live news, in-depth opinions, and analyses only on Deccan Herald.

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