India likely to witness warmer February, chances of El Nino in the monsoon season

New Delhi: February will witness above-normal temperature in large parts of India, impacting wheat, barley, oilseeds, vegetable and fruit crop yields particularly in north west and central India, the India Meteorological Department said here on Saturday.

Day temperature will be on the higher side over a vast area on the eastern part of the country stretching from Arunachal Pradesh and Assam in the north east to north interior and central Karnataka.

Other states that may feel the heat are Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal.

IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said El Nino might develop in the second half of the monsoon season, but a clearer picture would emerge by April.

El Nino – an unusual warming of the Pacific that influences weather globally – is typically associated with poor Indian summer monsoon.

Elevated night temperature in February would also be experienced by most parts of the country barring a few states on the east coast, but the most prominent above-normal minimum temperature trend would be seen in the north west India, Indo-Gangetic plains and parts of central and western India, impacting crops across regions.

Above-normal temperatures may accelerate crop growth and shorten the crop duration of wheat and barley that may experience forced maturity, resulting in yield reduction.

Mustard, chickpea, lentil, and field peas might show early flowering and premature maturity, leading to poor pod development, reduced seed size, and lower yields, IMD said in an agromet advisory, suggesting countermeasures like light irrigation and conserving soil moisture.

A warm February is also likely to impact the production of vegetables like potato, onion, garlic, tomato, cauliflower, cabbage and peas, and horticulture crops like mango, citrus, banana and grapes.

Livestock and poultry may also experience heat stress leading to reduced milk and egg production unless cooling measures are taken.

Asked about the lack of snowfall in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand this January, Mohapatra said there has been a decline in snowfall in western Himalayas in recent years due to climate change, as suggested in a few studies. Similar trends were seen in 2023 and 2025 too.

This year, a long and dry spell of winter continued till the third week of January when the first major Western Disturbance – an extra-tropical storm that originates in the Mediterranean - hit India between January 21-24, triggering heavy snowfall. It was followed by a second WD between January 26-28 and a third one that is ongoing.