India may miss key climate goal of 500-GW RE capacity by 2030 due to high capital cost

New Delhi: India may fail to achieve its target of deploying 500 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity by 2030 if the annual funding does not increase by 20 per cent from the current levels, a new report warns.

The report prepared by global energy think tank Ember said project-commissioning delays and uncertainties related to new age "Firm and Dispatchable Renewable Energy" (FDRE) projects could raise the cost of capital by up to 400 basis points.

Delays in project commissioning have been caused by land-acquisition issues, grid connectivity delays and delays in signing power purchase agreements (PPAs), it said.

According to the report, a 400 basis points increase in financing costs could result in India falling short of its 500-GW renewable energy target by up to 100 GW.

A higher cost of capital would also increase electricity costs for consumers, it said.

Investments in renewable power generation and transmission in the financial year 2024 were estimated at USD 13.3 billion, a 40-per cent increase from the previous year.

"However, to meet the targets outlined in the NEP-14, annual financing must grow at a consistent rate of 20 per cent each year, reaching USD 68 billion by 2032," the report said.

A cumulative investment of USD 300 billion would be needed to meet India's 2030 renewable energy target of 500 GW, a key milestone under the 14th National Electricity Plan (NEP-14), it added.

Neshwin Rodrigues, senior energy analyst for India at Ember, said: "Understanding project-specific financing risks for RE projects is key to designing targeted mitigation measures that keep the cost of capital low. Staying attuned to evolving risk profiles in renewables is essential for sustaining their growth and ensuring India meets its RE targets." Duttatreya Das, energy analyst for India at Ember, said: "By demystifying the quantification of risks and their magnitude, the report ensures that all RE stakeholders -- developers, financiers and policymakers -- have access to a structured framework for evaluating risks. This, in turn, can lead to more targeted policy interventions and contracting mechanisms that effectively mitigate risks, ultimately supporting the affordability of renewable energy." At COP26 in Glasgow, UK, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced India's goal of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030.

While this target was not officially included in India's updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) -- climate action plans under the Paris Agreement -- it remains a key reference in national energy planning documents, including the NEP-14.

The NEP-14 incorporates this goal, targeting 596 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2032. This would account for 68.4 per cent of the country's total installed capacity and meet 44 per cent of its electricity demand.

The plan sets specific targets of 365 GW of solar, 122 GW of wind, 47 GW/236 GWh of battery energy storage systems and 26.7 GW of pumped storage plants.