India on track to exceed key 2030 climate target: Analysis

New Delhi: India is on track to exceed its climate target of reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45 per cent by 2030 as compared to 2005 levels, according to a new analysis.

The emissions modelling analysis by Delhi-based think-tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and Alliance for an Energy Efficient Economy (AEEE), an NGO, projected that India’s energy sector emission intensity could decrease by 48-57 per cent by 2030 as compared to 2005 levels.

However, achieving the 2070 net zero target (balancing emissions with removals) will require additional policy interventions, centred around carbon pricing, along with power pricing reforms, fiscal support for clean technologies, enhanced energy efficiency and behaviour change initiatives.

The findings, published this week in the international journal ‘Energy and Climate Change’, suggest that India’s 2035 NDC targets could include reducing emissions intensity of GDP between 55 and 66 per cent relative to 2005 (with most scenarios indicating a 56 per cent reduction) and increasing the non-fossil fuel share in installed power capacity to 60-68 per cent.

As per its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) or national climate plans submitted to the UNFCCC in August 2022, India aims to reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 45 per cent from the 2005 level and achieve 50 per cent cumulative electric installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030.

Countries are required to submit their next round of national climate plans for the 2031-2035 period this year. With most countries, including India, missing the February 10 deadline, UN climate change chief Simon Stiell has urged them to submit their plans by September at the latest.

India has not yet finalised its new NDCs.

Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow, CEEW, said, “Since the Paris Agreement, India has demonstrated climate leadership on several fronts. It has also proven that growth and emissions reduction can happen together.

“This paper reaffirms that with decisive reforms -- across electricity pricing, industrial planning, nuclear electricity, lifestyle change and urban mobility -- India can significantly bend its emissions curve towards net zero." He said India’s 2035 NDC must reflect not only enhanced ambition but also economic realism, supported by analytical assessments.

A well-calibrated strategy should include an economy-wide emissions intensity target, sector-specific carbon budgets and a push for low-carbon technologies and clean manufacturing, Chaturvedi said.

Satish Kumar, President and Executive Director, AEEE, said, “By integrating key energy efficiency parameters as endogenous variables in the underlying climate model, our paper breaks new ground in capturing the real-world potential of demand-side interventions. This approach makes the model more robust and reflective of India’s development realities.” The CEEW-AEEE analysis found that a high-growth scenario aligned with the ‘Viksit Bharat’ vision would lead to 63 per cent higher absolute emissions by 2070, compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.

However, the emissions intensity of GDP would still fall by 3 per cent relative to BAU, due to greater adoption of efficient technologies and deeper integration of renewables in India’s energy mix, it said.

This reduction could be even higher if the Indian industries prioritise electricity-driven, low-emission manufacturing sectors, such as semiconductors.

Behavioural and lifestyle changes -- such as reduced private vehicle use, adoption of energy-efficient appliances and optimised residential energy use (modelled under India’s Mission LiFE framework) -- could deliver up to 10 per cent emissions reductions by 2050 relative to BAU, as well as reduce the pressure on land resources. Policies that mandate energy-efficient products and prioritise their procurement could deliver substantial gains at relatively low costs.

The CEEW-AEEE analysis also found that lower tariffs for industrial and commercial users could accelerate electrification and boost clean energy uptake.

Higher residential tariffs, on the other hand, could make rooftop solar more attractive, provided low-income households continue receiving targeted support.