India set to take back 18,000 citizens from US to placate Trump

By Sudhi Ranjan Sen and Dan Strumpf

India’s government is prepared to work with Donald Trump’s administration to identify and take back all its citizens residing illegally in the US, an early signal from New Delhi that it’s willing to comply with the incoming American president and avoid a trade war.

The US has identified some 18,000 illegal Indian migrants to be sent back home, for which India will verify and start the process of deportation, according to people familiar with the matter. The figure could be much higher than that, though, given that it’s unclear how many illegal Indian migrants live in the US, the people added, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private.

Youth from western India, in particular the states of Punjab and Gujarat, are believed to constitute a majority of the illegal immigrants in the US, the people said.

Like several other nations, India is working behind the scenes to appease the Trump administration and avoid the brunt of its trade threats. The crackdown on illegal migration has been a signature campaign pledge for Trump. Within hours of his inauguration Monday, the new president moved to fulfill that promise as he pushed to end birthright citizenship and mobilise troops on the US-Mexico border.

In return for its cooperation, India hopes that the Trump administration would protect legal immigration channels used by its citizens to enter the US such as student visas and the H-1B program for skilled workers. Indian citizens accounted for almost three-fourths of the 386,000 H-1B visas granted in 2023, according to official data.

Any slack in taking back illegal US migrants could also adversely affect India’s labour and mobility agreements with other countries, the people said. With a jobs shortage back home, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has signed migration agreements with an array of countries in recent years, including Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Israel and others.

“As part of India-US cooperation on migration and mobility, both sides are engaged in a process to deter illegal migration. This is being done to create more avenues for legal migration from India to the US,” said Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs. “The latest deportation of Indian nationals from the US by a chartered flight is a result of this cooperation,” he added, referring to an October repatriation action.

Rising Numbers

India is a relatively modest contributor of illegal migrants to the US, with its citizens accounting for about 3 per cent of all unlawful crossings encountered by US border patrol officials in fiscal 2024, according to US Customs and Border Protection data. Latin American countries such as Mexico, Venezuela and Guatemala account for a far larger share.

However, the tally and share of Indian illegal migrants has been rising in recent years. In particular, it has shot up at the less-trafficked northern US border, where Indians account for almost a quarter of all illegal crossings and also the biggest share of unlawful migrants stopped at that entry point, the data show.

“India will have do things in the domain where it is easy to deliver,” said Harsh Pant, a professor of International Relations at King’s College London. It will be difficult to deliver on trade and tariff because of “broader structural issues” and as the “two countries are in different stages of development”

“Illegal immigration is an area where India can demonstrate to the Trump administration that it is delivering.”

While the total number of illegal Indian migrants in the US isn’t certain, a report published last year by the Department of Homeland Security estimated some 220,000 unauthorised Indian immigrants resided in the US as of 2022.

India has already sought to show a cooperative attitude toward US border enforcement efforts, including toward officials in the Biden administration. The October repatriation flight with more than 100 Indian nationals built on the more than 1,100 Indian citizens deported during the previous 12 months.

Taking back illegal migrants could also further Modi’s goal of deterring secessionist movements overseas, according to the people, including the so-called Khalistan movement, which seeks to establish a separate Sikh state on Indian soil. India has cracked down on the movement, and officials believe some of the group’s backers in the US and Canada are illegal migrants.

Trade Worries

While Modi is seen to have friendly ties with Trump and has welcomed the new administration, it is cautious of any unpredictable action from the US president, which could lead to a costly trade war. Trump has repeatedly complained that India’s high import taxes hurt American businesses and has vowed reciprocal duties on the South Asian nation.

In his first day in office, Trump focused his attention on immediate neighbors. The US president said on Monday that he was planning to impose tariffs of as much as 25 per cent on Mexico and Canada by Feb. 1, blaming them for “allowing vast numbers of people” into the country.

Canada in particular was “a very bad abuser,” Trump said, complaining about fentanyl and migrants crossing its US border.

While it’s not fully clear why the northern US border has become such a major entry point for unauthorised migrants from India, reasons could include a halt to visa-free travel for Indians to El Salvador in 2023, and the relative ease of travel to Canada for Indians, according to the Niskanen Center, a Washington-based think tank.