India's November Russian oil imports set to hit five-month high

New Delhi/Moscow: India's oil imports from Russia in November are set to hit their highest level in five months, preliminary data from Kpler shows, as refiners rushed to secure barrels ahead of a US deadline to end transactions with sanctioned Russian oil producers.

India, the world's third-largest oil importer, has been the biggest buyer of discounted seaborne Russian crude after Russia was shunned by Western countries following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to visit the South Asian country next month, according to the Kremlin. His last trip there was in December 2021, a few months before ordering troops into Ukraine.

Britain, the European Union and the United States have tightened sanctions on Moscow over the war, with Washington’s latest measures targeting the country's biggest producers Rosneft and Lukoil.

Buyers of Russian oil had until November 21 to wind down dealings with the two companies.

Russian oil imports to rise before falling in December

India's purchases of Russian oil are expected to rise to 1.855 million bpd this month from 1.48 million bpd in October, according to provisional data from ship tracking agency Kpler, defying numerous predictions for a fall in the wake of the new sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil. This would be the highest since July when it imported 1.52 million bpd.

"Russian supply is expected to be high in November as many refineries tried to fill the stocks prior to the US sanctions deadline and also due to the rule for oil products production for EU market from non-Russian oil from 2026," a trade source said.

However, the imports are seen falling to their lowest in at least three years in December, as refiners turn to alternatives to avoid breaching the Western sanctions, trade and refining sources said on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the media.

Separately, the EU has set a January 21 deadline after which it will decline fuel from refineries that handled Russian crude within 60 days of the bill of lading.

Bank scrutiny following the latest US sanctions has made Indian state refiners "extremely cautious", one of the refining sources said, adding that India is likely to get 600,000 to 650,000 barrels per day of Russian oil in December.

These include imports by Indian Oil Corp, Nayara Energy and delivery of some November-loading cargoes for Reliance Industries, the source added, citing preliminary lifting plans of Indian companies.

Most Indian refiners halt Russian buys

Most Indian refiners, such as Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, have stopped buying Russian oil.

Reliance Industries Ltd has said it loaded Russian oil cargoes "precommitted" as of October 22, and will process any arriving after November 20 at its refinery that produces fuel for the local market.