Kashmir’s water security at risk amid shortened winters, rising temperatures

Srinagar: While the late February snow and rain have temporarily revived Kashmir’s water bodies, experts warn that rising temperatures and shorter winters pose a serious long-term threat to the region’s water supply, potentially leading to drought conditions in the near future.

Kashmir, with its lush landscapes and water-intensive crops like rice and thriving apple orchards, depends heavily on seasonal snowfall and rainfall to replenish water bodies and sustain irrigation systems.

However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported a significant 83% precipitation deficit in Jammu and Kashmir between January 1 and February 21. Although the snowfall and rain this week have reduced this deficit to 40 per cent, experts say the improvement is only temporary.

Water availability in Kashmir is already strained, particularly in northern areas like Baramulla, where residents have been facing water shortages.

“While the late snowfall has provided short-term relief, the real concern lies in the rising temperatures and the shrinking winter season,” Dr. Haroon Rather, an environmental scientist based in Srinagar told DH. “In the past decade, we’ve seen a pattern of less snowfall and higher temperatures, which results in less snowmelt in spring and summer.”

Rising temperatures have shortened Kashmir’s winters, decreasing the amount of time snow accumulates on the mountains and in the valley.

The fast vanishing green cover, over exploitation of resources, unplanned urbanisation, conversion of agriculture land for commercial purposes and migration of people towards forest areas owing to non-availability of land in cities and towns are being given as reasons which contribute factors to winters turning warmer.

Experts also warn that the region’s current water management practices are ill-equipped to address these changing conditions. Dr. Rather hmad stressed the need for a shift in policy, including more efficient irrigation systems, rainwater harvesting, and the promotion of drought-resistant crops.

Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad, Director of the Meteorological Department in Srinagar, noted that Kashmir’s winter season has become confined to December and January, whereas it previously spanned from October to March.

“The average global temperature has increased by nearly 1.5°C in the last five decades. The Himalayas are the first indicator of this change, with rapid glacier melting, altered precipitation patterns, and shifting agriculture in higher altitudes,” he explained.

As temperatures in the Himalayan range are expected to rise by up to 6°C in the coming decades, Dr. Ahmad warned, “Such a rise could have devastating impacts on glaciers, river systems, local streams, drinking water availability, and water for agriculture and horticulture.”

As Kashmir transitions into spring, the undeniable effects of climate change on its water supply continue to grow. While the current snow and rain offer short-term respite, ensuring the region’s long-term water security remains a critical challenge with far-reaching consequences for its economy, agriculture, and way of life.