Kashmir's youth worry about future as recent attack hits tourism

Srinagar: A deadly attack at a popular tourist spot in the Pahalgam region of India's Jammu and Kashmir territory last week has left the local youth, already struggling with high unemployment in a volatile region, concerned about their livelihood and future.

Twenty-six people died when suspected militants opened fire in the Baisaran valley - the worst such attack in the country in nearly two decades. The region is claimed by both India and Pakistan, and in 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government revoked Kashmir's semi-autonomous status - a move strongly objected by Pakistan.

Abid Hussain Mir, who took to selling SIM cards for a living when he struggled to find a job after graduating in commerce in 2020, said the incident had already hit his income as tourists fled and stayed away.

More than half of the tourist destinations in the Kashmir region have been closed to the public from Tuesday, according to a government order reviewed by Reuters, as part of broader measures taken after the attack.

Tourism accounts for 7-8 per cent of Jammu and Kashmir's gross domestic product, according to the state government.

Abid said he had only been able to sell one SIM card since the attack - to a journalist from Delhi covering the recent violence - having sold around 20 to 30 per day previously.

"I used to earn 500-1,000 rupees a day, but now I (will) barely (be) able to make 200 rupees a day," said Abid.

As the sole breadwinner, he is worried about his family's wellbeing and how they will afford his younger sister's wedding later this year. He said he was considering going into construction or delivery to make ends meet.

"It had begun to feel normal over the past few years. There were no major protests or violence, and tourists had started returning. But deep down, we all knew this calm could fall apart at any moment," Abid said.

The Jammu and Kashmir region has long struggled with sluggish growth and high unemployment, as decades of violence have contributed to a weak private sector and poor infrastructure.

After the Modi government's controversial decision to revoke Kashmir's semi-autonomous status in 2019, many people were detained to forestall a backlash, while the government also imposed months of curbs on communications.

Jammu and Kashmir's unemployment rate among the 15-29 age group reached 32% in third quarter of 2024, double the national average, according to India's statistics office, meaning one third of the young people living in the region were jobless.

Javid Ahmed Tenga, president of the Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), said the recent attack could exacerbate this.

"The unemployment rate among both skilled and unskilled youth in Kashmir will worsen even further, pushing more people, particularly the younger generation, into economic distress," he said.

RELUCTANT TOURISTS

The resurgence of violence already seems to be hitting tourism, which is a key sector for Jammu and Kashmir's economy and had been on the rise in recent years.

A tour operator from the city of Srinagar in the Jammu and Kashmir region, who asked not to be named for fear of reprisal, said travel and hotel bookings had already plunged after the attack and he worried he wouldn't be able to pay his daughter's school fees should the situation continue.

"Due to the Pahalgam attack, 90 percent of my bookings have been cancelled, and I fear the remaining ones will be cancelled," said the 34-year old.

Six out of ten families in India who had planned to visit the Kashmir Valley this year had cancelled their bookings following the recent violence, according to a survey carried out by LocalCircles, an online community platform.

Some 2.95 million tourists visited the Jammu and Kashmir region in 2024, up sharply from 2.71 million in 2023 and 2.67 million in 2022, according to government data.

The resurgence in violence could also affect the region's wider economy which had been benefiting from a surge in start-ups in recent years, Tenga said.

The number of startups in the Jammu and Kashmir region soared in recent years, with 917 startups registering with the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) in 2024, nearly four times the 237 registered in 2020, according to data from the state government.

Aqib Nazir, 24, had been considering opening his own restaurant in Srinagar after he graduated in 2023, but he is now rethinking those plans, worried that the heightened security measures after the attack would hurt business.

He was also concerned that stigma around his native region could affect his job prospects elsewhere in India.

"I fear that even if I try to leave Kashmir to find a job in the private sector in other parts of India, I'll be met with suspicion due to the recent attack and my Kashmiri identity," he said.