Lok Sabha Polls 2024: If Assembly numbers hold, it's BJP-JD(S) in 131 segments in Karnataka

Bengaluru: Last year, the Congress pranced to power by winning 135 Assembly constituencies in Karnataka. But when the grand old party crunched some data, it found that the BJP and the JD(S) together can strike a blow. 

According to an internal Congress data report that DH has accessed, the BJP and the JD(S) together polled more votes in 131 Assembly segments last year. The Congress’ votes were more than that of the BJP and the JD(S) combined in the remaining 93 Assembly constituencies.

The Congress could face a setback in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls if the BJP and the JD(S) give each other their votes. 

This once again underlines the need for the BJP-JD(S) alliance to ensure a mutual transfer of votes. This also explains why the Congress is aggressively poaching local BJP and JD(S) leaders to prevent the alliance from keeping its votes intact. 

Take for example the Gulbarga Lok Sabha segment, which is AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge’s turf. In the Assembly polls last year, the BJP and the JD(S) together got more votes than the Congress in Jevargi, Gurmitkal, Gulbarga Rural and Gulbarga Uttar. The Congress outdid the two parties in Afzalpur, Chittapur, Sedam and Gulbarga Dakshin. This makes it an equal fight. 

The situation is skewed further in favour of the BJP-JD(S) in the Tumkur Lok Sabha segment where the alliance polled more votes than the Congress in seven out of eight Assembly segments last year. In Kolar, the alliance together can win six out of eight segments based on last year’s voting.

BJP general secretary N Ravikumar told DH that the mutual transfer of votes will happen.

"Everywhere, we're doing meetings together. Coordination committees are there in every Assembly constituency. We're also identifying BJP and JD(S) voters and asking them to vote for the alliance," he said.

"In every programme, leaders from both parties will be present to send a message to the voters that we're together," he added. 

But the Congress is convinced that the BJP and the JD(S) will not give each other their votes.

Congress' communications chief Ramesh Babu cited the 2019 Lok Sabha polls as an example. Then, the Congress and the JD(S) had a coalition. "What happened then?" he said rhetorically. "The 2019 election was fought keeping in mind the same calculation."