What Congress is likely to factor in to resolve Karnataka power tussle

With the power tussle between Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar is taking new turns every day, the Congress high command is trying to do its most delicate balancing act since returning to power in the State in 2023.

Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah have already met once at the latter's residence for breakfast on Saturday and they are likely going to do the same again, on Tuesday, this time at the residence of the KPCC president. After the first meeting, both leaders gave a message of unity and said there are "no differences" and everything is fine. But politicians do not meet with so much spectacle if everything is alright.

Any decision has to be in sync with the administrative, political, organisational and symbolic stakes. The leadership in Delhi cannot afford a mishandled response which could trigger consequences far beyond Bengaluru.

The grand old party has to take care of this issue on many fronts. Both the leaders are towering figures in the current setup of the Congress, both at the Centre and in the State. Siddaramaiah, party’s strongest AHINDA face and an OBC leader with deep mass connect, has the backing of a substantial section of MLAs. Party wants to make Karnataka's welfare schemes and social guarantees the model for social justice in other States of south India and in the rest of the country as well. These schemes are said to be the brainchild of Siddaramaiah.

Shivakumar's command on the organisational machinery, network, fundraising ability and control over the party structure make him second to none. His presence is not only required for this government’s survival, but also for the Congress’ prospects in the 2028 elections and beyond. Sources say that there is growing acknowledgement in Delhi that Shivakumar will have his chance at the top seat, but when — no one is willing to answer that. This situation of no clarity might bring instability, and the high command knows this too well.

The Congress which has the recent examples like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Punjab and Haryana — where the party suffered major blows due to lack of clarity and too much factionalism within the organisation — cannot afford another State slip away from its hands. There are aspirations of local MLAs as well. This period of indecision adds to their frustration, especially for those who are set to get tough fights in their constituency.

In a matter of four or five months, States like Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu and the Union Territory of Puducherry will witness Assembly elections and the party would like to show up as a unified force. Karnataka, being an important State for the party, the Congress cannot have any kind of instability. It will send the wrong message to voters.

Keeping in mind these elections, the party needs to have answers for some uncomfortable questions if it goes for a leadership change in the State. Does it weaken the Congress’ guarantee-driven governance model? Does it dilute the social justice plank that powered its 2023 victory? Can the party manage a transition without appearing high-handed or dismissive of caste and community alignments?

The Congress has to come up with a solution which looks like a win-win for both the camps and at no stage should it be an imposed one, not in optics at least. The crisis has to be resolved before it festers into a narrative of failure and the BJP starts projecting the Karnataka government as a failed one.

The party has to manage egos, ensure effective governance, exalt national positioning, and learn from history. The coming weeks will reveal whether the party has truly evolved or whether we are going to see another Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Punjab or Haryana.