While Congress braces for states' polls, Karnataka deadlock remains

Bengaluru: Will he or will he not step down? Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, who broke the record of Karnataka’s longest-serving chief minister on January 7 by surpassing D Devaraj Urs, is preparing to break another record by tabling his 17th budget.

But even as these personal records stack up, they have sharpened the intrigue over the much-talked-about power transfer under the alleged ‘secret’ 50–50 formula, with Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar waiting for the party high command’s signal.

Speculation of an October–November ‘Kranti’ fell flat. Last year, Siddaramaiah’s induction into the AICC’s OBC advisory council was seen as an attempt to pave the way for a “smooth” transition. This time, AICC’s decision to appoint Shivakumar as observer to poll-bound Assam has effectively put brakes on any elevation — at least until Siddaramaiah presents the budget.

Say AICC sources, this Sankranti may mark not just the Sun’s shift but also a change of course for Karnataka Congress, with the high command likely to bring both leaders to the negotiating table for one-to-one talks, to weigh the pros and cons and time any move to minimise political and electoral fallout.

The party’s diktats—against caste-based conventions like Siddaramotsava, dinner meetings amid the Dalit CM demand, and public showdowns—have failed to end internal bickering. Repeated displays of camaraderie, claims of “no differences,” Shivakumar’s pledge of party loyalty, and even ‘breakfast diplomacy’ before the winter session were largely optics, say insiders, as resentment simmered in both camps.

As the Congress braces for five crucial elections—Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, Puducherry and West Bengal—it faces an even bigger challenge in resolving the Karnataka deadlock. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar has handed the opposition ammunition, led to bureaucratic complacency and growing animosity within the party.

Siddaramaiah, a Kuruba strongman and popular Ahinda leader, brings vast administrative experience. Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga heavyweight, is a Gandhi family loyalist and master strategist. The party’s landslide 2023 victory was under their joint leadership.

The high command cannot afford to alienate Ahinda voters or Vokkaligas, who shifted from the JD(S) hoping to see Shivakumar as CM. Past backlash from abrupt CM removals—Devaraj Urs, Veerendra Patil, and B S Yediyurappa—also weighs heavily.

While sections of the central leadership back Siddaramaiah, fears of a Vokkaliga backlash and demoralising party loyalists persist.

“I reiterate—efforts may fail, but not prayers,” Shivakumar said recently, an apparent message to the leadership.

Change appears inevitable. Siddaramaiah, who once dismissed any power pact, has turned pensive: “Let me see how long I will last.”

With both camps quietly mobilising MLAs, Karnataka may soon see either a change of guard or a fierce resistance—one that could redefine state politics and the futures of its two tallest leaders.