Will the Cong-JD(S) pre-poll pact spoil BJP's prospects?

Buoyed by the Opposition’s success in the recent bypolls, the Congress has decided to fight the Lok Sabha election in Karnataka by forging a pre-poll alliance with the JD(S).

The numbers indicate that the Congress-JD(S) pre-poll pact has the potential to reduce the BJP’s Lok Sabha tally to 6. The projection of Karnataka’s 2018 Assembly results over the Lok Sabha seats shows that the Congress-JD(S) alliance can bag up to 22 seats.

The Congress's votes are spread across the state, whereas both the JD(S) and the BJP have no base in some pockets.

The JD(S)'s presence in coastal Karnataka and Bombay-Karnataka is minimal. But the alliance can make inroads in Central Karnataka and Hyderabad-Karnataka where the BJP won most seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

Old Mysore

Though the electoral battle in the state is between the Congress and the BJP, in old Mysore region, it is a straight fight between the JD(S) and the Congress. Will their alliance sweep the region? Will the traditional voter go against them for the 'unholy' alliance?

Also, seat sharing in the JD(S) stronghold is going to be a herculean task. The Vokkaliga-dominated districts of Ramanagara, Mandya, Hassan and Mysuru may not prefer an alliance for the JD(S) as there is anger over former chief minister Siddaramaiah's policies.

The JD(S) swept Mandya, winning all seven seats in the district in the recent Assembly elections. In 2014, too, the party was confined to its traditional Vokkaliga stronghold of Hassan and Mandya.

But the BJP convincing voters over what it feels is a desperate attempt by the Congress and the JD(S) to cling to power will remain a big challenge. With under a year to go for the Lok Sabha polls, the alliance is aiming to break the Modi magic to turn around it's fortunes.