Intelligence suggests September 19 Manipur ambush may have been ‘contract killing’ to undermine President rule

Imphal: Security forces have launched a major crackdown on the banned People's Liberation Army (PLA), a prominent Manipur valley-based insurgent group, arresting a total of 15 cadres including two key suspects directly involved in last month's deadly ambush on an Assam Rifles convoy that killed two soldiers.

The two main accused were identified as Thoungram Sadananda Singh alias Purakpa (18) and Khomdram Ojit Singh alias Keilal (47). Their arrest came within 72 hours of the Nambol incident where two Assam Rifles soldiers were gunned down, officials said.

Security agencies are also reportedly investigating whether the PLA has been operating with any political patronage and this scrutiny comes in the wake of another dominant insurgent group, the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), recently announcing a ceasefire and agreeing to participate in the Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement already signed by 24 Kuki insurgent groups with the Union Home Ministry.

Officials indicated that certain vested interests were attempting to undermine President's rule — a measure that has led to a cessation of the severe ethnic violence in the state.

These groups are pushing the narrative that the current administration is ineffective and that the suspended state assembly should be immediately restored, they said.

The Assam Rifles convoy ambush took place on September 19 in Nambol Sabal Leikai, a denotified tract where the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) does not hold ground and the CRPF is usually in charge of road security.

Two men of the Assam Rifles, Naib Subedar Shyam Gurung and Rifleman Ranjit Singh Kashyap, died after the 407 Tata vehicle they were in was ambushed along the road from Patsoi to Nambol base.

This was the first attack against central security forces deployed in Manipur since ethnic violence broke out between the Kuki-Zo and Meitei people in May 2023.

Of the weapons recovered during the ongoing operations, officials indicated that six are likely looted from a police armoury during the earlier phase of ethnic clashes in 2023, suggesting that weapons originally intended for the communal conflict are now making their way into the hands of insurgent groups and being used against security forces.

A van, suspected to have been used in the Nambol ambush, was also recovered from Mutum Yangbi, about 12 km from the site.

Thoungram Sadananda Singh, one of the accused arrested by the security forces, was a member of UNLF and had recently moved to the PLA after his previous group decided to lay down the arms, the officials said.

In an unusual turn, the PLA did not claim responsibility for the Nambol incident, despite a history of publicly owning all actions over its 48 years of existence. Reliable intelligence inputs suggest the PLA central leadership was not aware of or did not authorise the attack.

This has prompted the intelligence agencies to examine the possibilities that the Nambol incident might have been a political contract killing, directed at tainting the state's brittle atmosphere, discrediting President's rule, or forestalling the revival of a popular regime, the officials added.

After the attack, an emergency high-level meeting presided over by Governor Ajay Bhalla was held to emphasise the importance of collective action from all security agencies to quickly identify the attackers and enhance security in soft spots, such as major highways and routes of transportation.

While the arrests are on, observers are sounding alarms over the revival of old banned outfits such as the aggrieved cadres of UNLF, PLA, Kanglei Yawol Kanba Lup (KYKL), and People's Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK).

The authorities have warned that the declaration of a truce may allow these groups, who have been labeled "heroes" by some, to redirect their arms against the same people that they purport to defend.

The UNLF, with an estimated disgruntled 250 cadres, is notorious for high-level extortion from contractors and businesspeople. The PLA, originally known as 'Polei,' seeks to liberate Manipur and establish an independent Meitei homeland in the Imphal Valley.

The KYKL, which is financed largely by extortion, is described as a mercenary organisation without a unified ideology, whereas the PREPAK finances itself by extorting commercial establishments, especially pharmacies, and has close associations with drug-trafficking operations.

Intelligence inputs suggest that Valley-Based Insurgent Groups (VBIGs) continue to maintain significant strength in the Imphal Valley and along the India-Myanmar border.

The PLA is estimated to have around 500 cadres, while PREPAK (both factions), KYKL-OKEN, UNLF-K, and KCP-NOYON have a combined strength of around 550. The Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP) is believed to have around 900 cadres, and the National Revolutionary Front of Manipur (NRFM) approximately 200.

Manipur has been gripped by ethnic violence between Meiteis and Kukis since May 2023, rooted in disputes over land rights and political representation. The unrest has claimed over 260 lives and displaced nearly 50,000 people internally.