Nitish, 'NDA captain' in Bihar, faces an uneven pitch

“Nitish Kumar is the captain of the NDA and will remain so even during 2020 Bihar Assembly elections,” reiterated senior BJP leader and state’s Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Modi. His attempt was to put to rest all speculation after another senior BJP leader and former Union minister Sanjay Paswan asked Nitish Kumar to relinquish the post of Chief Minister and make way for a BJP leader.

But not a single BJP leader in Bihar has endorsed Sushil Modi’s assertions. Nor has the top party leadership in Delhi did so.

It’s still more than a year to go before Assembly elections in Bihar will be held. But the cracks within the NDA have raised a question mark whether the BJP-led alliance in the state will have a smooth ride as it had happened during 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

An astute politician that he is, Nitish Kumar knows for sure that the present dispensation in the BJP won’t allow him to don the mantle of Bihar for the fourth successive term even if he emerges triumphant in 2020 Bihar Assembly polls.

Reason: Bihar is the only state in the Hindi heartland where the BJP, since its inception, has so far never had a chief minister despite the saffron camp performing well in the last two decades. Nitish, therefore, wants the issue of the chief ministerial candidate to be settled at the earliest.

Secondly, Nitish knows too well that dealing with the Advani-Vajpayee duo was quite different than bargaining with Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combination. That too, in the absence of his close friend Arun Jaitley, who played a pivotal role in projecting him as NDA chief ministerial candidate during 2005 Assembly polls despite reservations expressed by then JD(U) chief George Fernandes.

Nitish never forgets and forgives so easily. He never forgave George (and ensured his ouster as party chief). Nor has he forgotten Narendra Modi, who offered him merely one berth during the swearing-in of the Union Cabinet in May 2019.

The likes of Giriraj Singh adding insult to injury by claiming that NDA swept the Lok Sabha polls in Bihar in the name of Narendra Modi and “Nitish was also a beneficiary as his party JD(U) won 16 out of 17 seats it contested” (for record, the NDA wrested 39 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar during 2019 parliamentary polls).

It is this offending posturing by the BJP leaders which is worrying Nitish more. With his fate uncertain in the company of a dominant BJP, the JD(U) strongman is keeping all his options open.

He has stopped berating RJD, particularly Lalu and his family members. He recently attended a meeting convened by his protégé-turned-detractor Jitan Ram Manjhi, whom he propped up as Bihar CM for a short span in 2014-15, and is keeping Congress in good humour.

Little wonder, the RJD has been extending an olive branch to the Bihar CM. “We are Socialists. So is Nitish. Our political DNA is the same. We are on the same wavelength when it comes to Triple Talaq, Article 370, Ram Temple and NRC…. At present, there is complete vacuum in the Opposition camp at the national level. Nitish is one leader who can fill this space as he is competent enough to give Narendra Modi a run for his money. He should dump the NDA and re-join Mahagatbandhan. We will readily accept him as our leader. And so will other Opposition parties,” former Rajya Sabha member Shivanand Tiwary, who has worked closely with Nitish as well as Lalu, told DH.

The relationship between Nitish and Modi had become quite cordial until May 30 when the prime minister offered merely one berth to the JD(U) in the Union Cabinet. This was followed by Nitish expanding his Cabinet by inducting eight JD (U) ministers but not a single minister from the BJP quota.

The ties further strained after JD (U) opposed the Modi regime on the issue of Triple Talaq and abrogation of Article 370. The relationship weakened further when a section of BJP demanded NRC in Bihar, particularly in Muslim-dominated districts, sharing borders with West Bengal.

Urgent need

“There is an urgent need for NRC in at least four Bihar districts – Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnia and Araria. Several Bangladeshis have migrated to Bihar and settled there,” said BJP Rajya Sabha member Rakesh Sinha. He was backed by leaders like Giriraj and other hardcore Hindutva brigade.

But the JD(U) outrightly rejected BJP’s demand. “NRC is a sensitive matter. It was implemented in Assam after clearance from the apex court. However, our party is very clear that there is no need for NRC in Bihar or any other state,” said JD (U) principal general secretary K C Tyagi.

Nitish’s trusted aide Shyam Razak was more blunt in responding to BJP’s demand. “There is no outsider or foreigner in Bihar. All those residing here are Biharis,” said Razak, who is Bihar’s industry minister.

There is a specific reason behind Nitish rejecting BJP’s NRC demand. Of late, the Muslims in Bihar, who constitute around 17% of the electorate, have rallied behind the JD (U) strongman ever since the original sympathiser of minorities Lalu Prasad was incarcerated in the fodder scam. Nitish has always maintained that whichever alliance the JD(U) opts for, emerges victorious.

“There are three angles to the Bihar political triangle. In 2005, when the JD(U) and the BJP joined hands, the RJD got a crushing defeat. During 2015 Assembly polls, when the JD(U) and the RJD entered into an alliance, the BJP had to bite the dust despite Modi campaigning aggressively for his party. So, Nitish remains the X-factor in Bihar and could still tilt the balance,” opined veteran political scientist Ajay Kumar.