Congress struggles to hold ground against AAP in Punjab

After multiple bypoll losses and dissent against leadership, Congress faces risk of losing ‘default challenger’ status to AAP, Akali Dal

New Delhi: The Congress appears to be struggling to maintain its position of ‘default challenger’ to the AAP in Punjab after back to back defeats in byelections in the last 12 months though it showed some signs of revival during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections by relegating the Arvind Kejriwal-led party to the corners.

Questions have been raised about the party organisation in the border State following the consecutive defeats since November byelections, even losing sitting seats that were vacant due to MLAs getting elected as MPs, with leaders attributing it to factional fight in the party.

In the latest bypoll in Tarn Taran, the Congress was pushed to the fourth position and in the process lost almost 11,500 votes that it polled in 2022. While the AAP won the seat, with the Akali Dal maintaining its runner-up position, the Congress saw its votes dwindling from 26,535 to 15,078 and ignominiously losing deposit.

Altogether, the Congress lost five out of six byelections since November last year and three of them were its sitting seat though it wrested one from the AAP. In the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress had won seven out of 13 seats, leaving three to the AAP, two to independents and one to the Akali Dal.

The Tarn Taran performance has once again triggered dissent against Punjab Congress president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, with a section of leaders raising the pitch for a leadership change but state in-charge Bhupesh Baghel told a meeting of new district presidents that he is not aware of any change though it is the prerogative of the party high command.

At the meeting, reports suggested that Leader of the Opposition in Punjab Partap Singh Bajwal said that he was removed as party head in the State earlier despite working hard at the behest of a pressure group, which could be repeated.

Leaders said Tarn Taran was not a Congress stronghold and had won it only once in decades, as the core voter base is ‘panthic’. 

However, sources said the Congress campaign lacked a coherent narrative and Warring’s remarks mocking late Buta Singh, a Mazhabi Sikh, drew Dalits away from the party. This also comes at a time when there is concern over Jat-Sikhs’ dominance in the party leadership while sidelining Dalit Sikhs and others.

There is a view within the party that relying solely on anti-incumbency may not work and it would seriously damage the Congress’ position as a default challenger of the AAP. The Congress had lost badly to the AAP in the 2022 Assembly polls but showed signs of bouncing back in the Lok Sabha polls. 

Also, the Akali Dal’s aggressive pitch to regain its lost ground is not good news for the Congress, which is reeling under organisational weakness and poor coordination. The appointment of new district presidents has also not gone down well with Dalits, Hindus and OBCs demanding better representation in the leadership.