Eyeing 2026, is AIADMK missing the 2024 bus?

Chennai: When the AIADMK snapped its ties with the BJP last year, it was unambiguously clear that the decision was made keeping in mind the 2026 assembly polls in Tamil Nadu, an electoral battle that is crucial for the 52-year-old party. 

By laying much focus on the Assembly elections that are clearly two years away from now, the Edappadi K Palaniswami-led party seems to have got its 2024 Lok Sabha election strategy wrong. Many of AIADMK’s friends in the past like the influential Paatali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and former Union Minister G K Vasan’s Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) have jumped ship to the BJP, which has cobbled up a rainbow coalition of its own. 

The party doesn’t have a prime ministerial candidate and it is a fact that EPS, as he is known as, lacks the charisma to convert the battle into a ‘Lady versus Modi’ fight like his mentor J Jayalalithaa did in 2014.

EPS thought the AIADMK walking out of the NDA will help the party court new friends among minorities, especially Muslims. But the ruling DMK’s consistent anti-BJP stand and the sudden implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, which wouldn’t have passed the Rajya Sabha test sans the support of 10 AIADMK MPs, have forced minority outfits to keep an arm’s length distance from it.

Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), which is known as the political arm of the banned Popular Front of India (PFI), is the only Muslim outfit to have joined the AIADMK alliance, with even long-time ally, Thamimum Ansari, who touched base with the party after last year, now extending his support to the DMK to “defeat the BJP.”

Banking on its core votes

A close look at the AIADMK candidate list – which has just a couple of familiar names with a majority of them being financially-sound middle-level functionaries – shows that the party has made a conscious decision to save senior leaders and their financial resources for the “bigger battle” in 2026. 

With no major alliance partners -- DMDK of late actor Vijayakanth whose 2021 performance was disastrous is the only ally – the AIADMK will face a tough battle in almost all regions of the state. The party believes its core vote bank, which is about 30 per cent, and the “anti-incumbency” against the DMK dispensation will aid its performance. 

Political analysts, however, say there is a real risk of the party being pushed to the third position in several constituencies, much like what happened to the DMK in 2014 when AIADMK contested alone, and the BJP cobbled up a “formidable” coalition, winning two seats. 

Senior journalist Maalan Narayanan said the 2024 elections is important for the AIADMK, which has not tasted any electoral success since 2016, as not winning in at least 50 per cent of the seats would further add to the impression that the party is on the decline. 

“AIADMK is on a weak wicket this time…the party could have watered down its anti-BJP stance for the Lok Sabha polls. At some point, it should decide who its enemy is, DMK or BJP,” he told DH. 

Intense battles in every region

The absence of an alliance with PMK, which wields considerable influence among Vanniyars spread across northern Tamil Nadu, might hurt the party in the region. BJP is likely to eat into the AIADMK votes among Mukulathors in Southern TN, thanks to its tie-up with party rebels, T T V Dhinakaran, and O Panneerselvam, as they too belong to the powerful OBC community.   

In the western region, the AIADMK and BJP will be locked in an intense battle as Palaniswami and state BJP chief K Annamalai hail from the region and the same community, Gounder. It is in the West, the BJP has been building a base on its own and believes that its social engineering with Arunthathiyars, a sub-caste of Dalits, could work in its favour due to the prominence given to Union Minister L Murugan, who belongs to the caste.

Optics, perception, ground machinery, and transferability of votes are four factors that are very important for a party in elections, Maalan said, adding that except the ground machinery, whose strength will be known only after the elections, the AIADMK seems missing the remaining three factors. 

“Optics and perception are pretty weak as the AIADMK couldn’t forge even a decent alliance, forget about a formidable one. And with no major allies, there is no room for transfer of votes as well. By fielding middle-level functionaries, the AIADMK seems to be contesting elections for the sake of it,” Maalan added. 

AIADMK believes going solo in 2024 will send a clear signal that it is resolute in its anti-BJP stand, which could help the party attract new allies, including those from the DMK alliance, for the 2026 assembly polls. 

However, the current leadership will come under pressure in the event of a defeat this time around as it will only add to its woes. 

But Maalan believes AIADMK leaders and cadres are bereft of options – OPS is still wavering, and many might think twice to jump ship to the DMK which will “certainly face some amount” of anti-incumbency in 2026. “We will have to wait and see what kind of pressure Palaniswami faces after elections,” Maalan added.