In the recently concluded Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, the Samajwadi Party (SP) was at pains to dispel any notions of familial discord within. As the party's 'Vijay Rath' rolled into Etawah ahead of the third phase of polling, a beaming Mulayam Singh Yadav, accompanied by son Akhilesh Yadav and brother Shivpal Yadav, boarded the chariot to send across a message of unity to the cadre and community.
Shivpal Yadav, an uncle of SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, while campaigning for the SP candidates, would invariably speak of the patch-up with his once estranged nephew. "I asked for 100 seats for my party. I scaled the demand down to five. But for the sake of party unity and family, I settled for just one seat," he would say while speaking at roadside meetings in Etawah and neighbouring districts.
Elections done and dusted, the family feud has again erupted. 'Not invited' for the first meeting of the newly elected party legislators in Lucknow, Shivpal Yadav is seen to be pedalling his bicycle towards the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). The second breakup may also help the BJP to 're-caste' its strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls for the following reasons.
All the accolades on a second consecutive term notwithstanding, the fact is that the SP's vote share in the elections was too close for the BJP's comfort. The shift in non-Yadav OBC voters in pockets ran deep to inflict substantial damage to the ruling party in pockets, especially in the Poorvanchal region of UP. The SP failed to capitalise further because these gains were limited to only half a dozen districts. The party lacked a coherent counter-narrative in Ruhelkhand and Avadh, which left too much space to close in between itself and the BJP.
The SP's ability to convert votes into seats was further restricted by the meltdown of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). However, all the rejig translated to a gain of 10 per cent votes for the SP while the BJP's gain was restricted to three per cent. Thus, Akhilesh Yadav emerged as the biggest gainer in terms of vote share.
In UP, on average, five assembly segments constitute one Lok Sabha constituency. A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows the opposition can win 25 seats out of 80 Lok Sabha seats from UP if this voting percentage were to hold good in the 2024 elections. That would translate to 55 or fewer seats for the BJP in the state, which has contributed more than 20 per cent to the party's kitty in the last two Lok Sabha polls.
Under Yogi Adityanath's leadership and chief ministerial face, the BJP contested the last UP election on a 70 versus 30 binary. Where 30 per cent comprised two large social blocks, Yadavs and Muslims, against which the ruling coalition tried to mobilise the remaining 70 per cent. Post polls, as it attempts to woo Shivpal Yadav and other local caste leaders, the BJP is tempering its approach towards dominant castes in the major-OBCs with the intent to undercut the SP further. In doing so, the party seems to be borrowing a trick or two straight out of Mayawati's playbook.
At the peak of the SP-BSP rivalry, there was one election when the BSP could manage to match Mulayam Singh's contingent of Yadav MLAs in the Lok Sabha. This happened in the 2004 general elections when Mayawati gave tickets to local Yadav strongmen who had fallen out with Mulayam Singh after establishing their own fiefdoms in their respective constituencies.
As the SP faced a problem of plenty in ticket distribution in the 2004 polls, Mayawati nominated some trusted Mulayam Singh aides to send five Yadav MPs to the Lok Sabha as against six by the SP. Those who won on the BSP ticket included brothers Ramkant and Umakant Yadav. The two were accused in the infamous VIP Guest House assault case when the BSP withdrew support from the Mulayam Singh government in 1995. Mayawati's successful experiment defied conventional political behaviour displayed by dominant caste groups, which tend to derive their political prowess through community mobilisations; and, as such, tend to marginalise and shun renegade elements.
Eighteen years later, the BJP, by accommodating Shivpal Yadav, may seek to soften its strident anti-Yadav image to dilute the SP's hold over a community that has stood steadfast with the anti-BJP block since 1989. This recalibration seems to be based on the premise that national issues tend to dominate the political discourse in the general elections. Therefore, the BJP may be able to retain a large section of minor OBCs without having to peg away at the socio-economic divide between the haves and have nots within the backward block.
Though gingerly, the BJP also seems to be testing the idea of weaning away a section of the Muslim voters as well without having to dilute its pro-Hindu image. Here too, the party is borrowing a leaf out of Mayawati's book. In west UP, in particular, the BSP chief at one point in time promoted local leaders from Qureshi and Ansari communities to make in-roads into a community where the narrative was predominantly being set by the upper-caste and well-off Muslims, which are aligned to either the Congress or the SP.
The post-poll data from the last ten years indicates that the BJP does get votes from a section of the Muslims, though this number is tiny. The BJP's outreach to Muslims, however, may be calibrated and confined to specific sections and classes. Targeted welfare schemes, especially for the poor or the pasmanda Muslims, which constitute almost 85 per cent of the community's population, could come in handy for the party to expand its catchment area within a constituency where its growth has been severely hampered.
In appointing Danish Azad Ansari as a minister in the Yogi Adityanath government, the BJP seeks to explore caste cleavages within UP's Muslim community.
(Sumit Pande is a journalist)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
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