Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 | Bihar win will boost Bengal BJP morale, but extrapolation of outcome may be simplistic, say experts

Kolkata: The decimating victory of the NDA in Bihar over the Mahagathbandhan may have big-pushed the BJP to a position where it can form a government even without Nitish Kumar if it wants, but the jury is out on whether that achievement can supply enough oxygen to the saffron camp in poll-bound West Bengal to upset the TMC apple cart.

The answer to that riddle, experts say, would depend on how efficiently Bengal’s warring parties handle the outcome of three critical factors in the run up to the scheduled assembly polls next year: SIR, dole politics and women voters.

With senior BJP leaders like Giriraj Singh already sounding the "Bengal's next" bugle early in the day and his "brace for the worst" warning for Mamata Banerjee finding resonance in statements of local saffron grandstanders like Suvendu Adhikari, the TMC may need more than its customary rebuttals of Bengal having "different equations", experts say.

"Every election result has a set of variable inputs which go into the building of those particular polls. In Bihar, the significantly high turnout of women voters in many pockets which followed the erstwhile Nitish Kumar government's dole of Rs 10,000 into their bank accounts seems to have been the game changer," said Subhamoy Maitra, a political analyst.

Maitra's observations find vindication even while taking a cursory look at Bihar's result trends. In north Bihar districts like Kosi and Darbhanga where women electors have been significantly higher than men, 12.5 per cent and 11.9 per cent respectively, the NDA has secured wins in 77 and 73 per cent seats respectively.

In south Bihar districts like Patna and Magadh, where men's turnout have been higher, albeit marginally, than women, the NDA managed to convincingly lead in just 30 and 23 per cent seats respectively.

"I will not be surprised if Mamata Banerjee follows Nitish Kumar's suit and announces more monetary schemes for women who have traditionally been her strong support base in Bengal," Maitra said.

Maitra insisted that Bihar results would prompt the ushering in of dole politics, especially for women, not just in Bengal but for all the other election-bound states of the country.

Poll analyst Biswanath Chakraborty felt that the Bihar whitewash would allow the BJP to now go full throttle against the Trinamool Congress in Bengal.

"The convincing victory of the Nitish Kumar-led alliance would certainly offer better stability to the BJP-led NDA at the Centre. That means there will be less dependence of the saffron camp on Mamata Banerjee which, in turn, would mean they can now launch a no-holds barred political attack on the TMC in the run-up to the state polls," Chakraborty said.

Analysing the Bihar poll results, top leaders of the BJP's Bengal unit thrust credit on the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in that state and extrapolated the outcome on the yet-unconquered battleground of Bengal.

"Bengal, like Bihar, will poll next year on electoral rolls cleaned up by the SIR and that will make the difference. What Nandigram did in 2021, the rest of the state will imitate in 2026," said Suvendu Adhikari, MLA from Nandigram who defeated Mamata Banerjee from that seat four years ago.

Chakraborty, on the contrary, felt that despite the shot in the arm BJP leaders received from Bihar, matters may not be that simple.

"The Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee-led Left Front government had returned to power with an overwhelming majority in the state in 2006 after the last SIR was conducted in 2002. If the Left can, there's no reason to presume that the TMC can't," he said.

Adding a dimension to the riddle, Maitra drew from recent remarks made by former judge-turned BJP MP Abhijit Gangopadhyay who, in interviews, alleged that corruption cases against TMC leaders are "not being properly pursued by probe agencies" while maintaining that "presence of too many non-Bengali leaders in the party, with scant understanding of Bengal's political ethos, are harming its prospects".

"Unlike in Bihar, we are yet to know the fallout of SIR in Bengal. There is no data at hand currently to deduce who would stand to benefit from the exercise. Instead, the BJP should answer judge Gangopadhyay's questions on whether it is serious about winning elections here," Maitra said.

Notwithstanding that opinion, Union minister Giriraj Singh launched a full frontal offensive against Mamata Banerjee, stating her days in power, which she "gained by piggybacking on Rohingyas and Bangladeshis", are numbered.

The TMC was quick to retort, signaling that the political rhetoric in Bengal would quickly escalate to jarring levels post Bihar results.

"The BJP is a poison tree and the words pouring from the mouths of its leaders are equally venomous. Unable to withstand the harmony with which people live in Bengal and in his bid to malign Bengalis, Singh crossed courtesy boundaries to label the people here as Rohingyas and Bangladeshis," said Sashi Panja, minister in Mamata Banerjee's cabinet.

That did not stop junior Union minister Sukanta Majumder from taking to X and announcing that following vanquishing the opposition in Odisha and Bihar, it's Bengal's turn next.

"Dream on", was TMC's slapstick response to the BJP on the same social media platform.