Bihar's revised Covid-19 death toll again raises doubts on official figures

6,148 people died in the previous 24 hours, taking total fatalities to almost 360,000, the world's third highest

Bihar’s decision to increase its Covid death toll by 72 per cent within 24 hours has put the spotlight once again on India’s Covid-19 death data, which has been under suspicion for a long time.

The eastern state reported a total of 5,424 deaths on June 8, but the figures rose sharply to 9,375 a day later after the state administration incorporated an additional toll of 3,951, revealed by a Covid-19 death audit initiated by the state government at the behest of the Patna High Court.

The maximum increase, more than 80 per cent, has been seen in Patna, which on June 9 registered a toll of 2,293 as against 1,223 recorded a day before.

Also read: In drastically revised Covid-19 toll, Bihar confirms more than 9,000 deaths

Other districts that witnessed a significant rise in their Covid toll include Muzaffarpur (from 294 to 608), Madhubani (from 154 to 316), Begusarai (from 138 to 454), East Champaran (from 131 to 422) and Nalanda (from 240 to 462).

“Following the Bihar experience, Covid-19 death numbers in all states must be audited properly and revised as needed. Such auditing should be carried out not just in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh but in most other states including Kerala,” health economist Rijo John, a visiting professor at Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode who has been raising red flags on Bihar’s Covid statistics for a long time, told DH.

Also read: AstraZeneca Covid vaccine carries slightly higher risk of bleeding disorders, study shows

The scrutiny of the Covid-19 toll began after an order from the Patna High Court that found discrepancies in the figures cited by the state administration.

In one specific example from Buxer district, the Court noted that in one cremation ground (Muktidham Charitarban), as many as 789 bodies were cremated over 10 days between May 5 and May 14. But the Chief Secretary informed the court that only six deaths have happened in the same district since March 1.

"We will not comment anything further on these affidavits. Make sure that all facts first must be verified from all sources and then only placed before us, else it will amount to filing of false or incomplete affidavit," the High Court ruled.

Bihar is not the only state with such suspicious toll data. There are similar reports from other states including Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. “Based on available estimates, underreporting of death is somewhere between 2-10 times, depending on the state,” said epidemiologist Giridhar Babu from the Public Health Foundation of India.

A recent modelling study by the University of Michigan concluded that India may be reporting 4.5 times less number of Covid-19 deaths. The Union Health Ministry, however, does not agree with such studies on Covid underreporting.