Ban gatherings of over 10 people: Lancet Task Force

A complete ban on gathering of over 10 people, a decentralised but coordinated approach to targeted containment and an efficient public leadership to make decisions are some of the measures suggested by experts if India has to emerge from the Covid-19 second wave.

The Lancet Covid-19 Commission India Task Force, comprising eminent experts from a cross section of the government, academia, research and policy sectors, pitched for food banks, cash transfers and building social safety nets to help the poor and marginalised.

It also said the prime minister should constitute and convene a Covid war-room comprising chief ministers, chief secretaries of all high burden states and leadership of all parties daily to jointly evaluate the situation.

Noting that the reproductive rate of the virus was 1.44 (as on April 25), the task force has given a list of 11 recommendations, starting with preparing medical services based on projections of demand in the coming days, especially the rise in cases of severity.

It suggested setting up oxygen generating plants on hospital premises and suspending elective procedures and restricting OPD.

The task force said that vaccination should align with the containment strategy by focusing on hotspots and medium risk.

"For low risk areas, as long as there are supply constraints, we recommend prioritising vulnerable populations (above 45 years or with comorbidities) before expanding to the general population," it said.

All gatherings, including family, of over 10 persons have to be banned for "as long as necessary" to bring the disease to an end, it said, but allowed for relaxations in low-risk areas.

To a question, a member of the task force Dr Giridhar Babu, who is also part of the state's Technical Advisory Committee, said it was too early to tell whether the present curfew was enough for a hotspot like Bengaluru.

"The effect of curfew is yet to show. Such measures will help if people are not moving around. If you lift the lockdown without putting in place subsequent measures to contain the spread of the disease, we will be back to square one," he said.

"If the health system is able to cater to all cases, then there is no need for lockdown. If it isn't, then there is no other option," he said.

The Task Force stressed the need to ramp up testing and urged the use of antigen test with double sampling instead of depending on RT-PCR method alone. It also called for a decentralisation of contact tracing and isolation using community-based organisations like resident welfare associations.

In what seems like a warning against the contradictory statements given by different ministers, the recommendation said building trust with the public through transparent, clear and consistent messaging was vital.

A source said the confusion caused by the lack of coordination between different departments, which reached a high point in March, was one of the main reasons for the system's failure to handle the situation as the developments left officials in confusion.

"The government should allow one person to do the job and put political considerations aside in this juncture," he said.