Monsoon delayed, to arrive in Kerala around June 7

No respite from heat for another week

 The Southwest Monsoon may get delayed by a week with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting its arrival on the Kerala coast around June 7.

While the monsoon is set to advance over the Andaman Sea in accordance with its schedule, further progress to the Kerala coast would be delayed. “The statistical model forecast suggests the monsoon onset over Kerala in 2016 is likely to be slightly delayed. The Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on June 7 with a model error of four days on either side,” the IMD said in a statement on Sunday.

The monsoon’s landfall would be late as seasonal transitions — change in wind patterns — were yet to happen in Kerala possibly due to the El Nino factor, M Rajeevan, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences told DH.

El Nino is an unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean that disrupts the weather patterns throughout the world. The two back-to-back drought years that India witnessed in 2014 and 2015 were predominantly due to the El Nino factor.

“The delay in the onset, however, would not adversely impact the monsoon’s performance,” Rajeevan said.

Taking the error margins into account, the monsoon can strike the Malabar coast anytime between June 3 and June 12. Earlier this week, a private weather forecasting agency, Skymet, had placed the onset date between May 28 and 30.

Over the next 48 hours, the southern states, however, are likely to receive heavy pre-monsoon showers due to a low-pressure system in the Indian Ocean. It is likely to further develop into a depression, bringing showers before moving towards the Northeast.

Because of the low-pressure zone, conditions are favourable for the onset of monsoon over the Nicobar Islands, south Andaman Sea and parts of south Bay of Bengal around May 17 and advancement over the entire Andaman Sea close to its normal date of around May 20.

Unpredictable skies

Monsoon currents to reach Kerala coast four days before or after June 7.
El Nino conditions have delayed the onset by a week.
IMD says delay would not adversely impact the monsoon’s performance.
Southern states to get heavy pre-monsoon showers in the next 48 hours.