Latest survey says NDA getting 275, UPA 147, Others 121

A new pre-poll survey has predicted a wafer-thin majority for the Narendra Modi-led NDA even as it indicated that the BJP may lose at least 42 seats it won in the 2014 elections.

The India TV-CNX poll showed that the NDA may get 275 seats with BJP leading the pack with 230 seats while the Congress is likely to get 97 seats, more than double the figure of 44 it won in the last Lok Sabha elections.

According to the survey conducted between March 24 and 31 in 543 parliamentary seats among a sample of 65,160 voters, the UPA is likely to get 147 seats, and 'Others' including the SP, BSP, Trinamool Congress, TRS and others are projected to win 121 seats.

The numbers have come down slightly for the NDA while UPA has improved if one compares with a similar poll conducted by India TV-CNX survey in the first week of March. The survey then claimed that the NDA could get 285 seats this time, just 13 seats more than the half-way mark of 272, while the Congress-led UPA will have to settle with 126 seats. NDA had won 336 seats in 2014 polls.

In the simultaneous polls to Assembly in Odisha, the survey predicted that the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD is likely to win another term while Y S Jaganmohan Reddy-led YSR Congress is likely to dethrone N Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP in Andhra Pradesh.

Besides BJP's 230 in the latest survey, other winners in the NDA may include Shiv Sena (13), AIADMK (10), JD-U (9), Akali Dal (2), LJP (3) and PMK (2). Other than Congress, UPA may add seats through DMK (16), RJD (8) and TDP (7), the survey said.

Among the prominent names among 'others', Trinamool Congress is projected to win 28 seats, Samajwadi Party 18, BSP 16, YSR Congress 18, TRS 12, BJD 14 and Left Front 8.

While Delhi's seven seats may go all the way to BJP, the prediction for Uttar Pradesh showed that BJP is likely to win 40 while BSP may bag 16 and SP 18. Congress may win four in UP.

In West Bengal, BJP may get 12 out of 42 seats while Congress and Left are likely to get one each and the rest to Trinamool Congress.

Karnataka may see Congress winning 10 and its ally JD(S) bagging two while the rest 16 going to BJP.

The NDA may win 26 seats (BJP-14, JD-U 9, LJP-3) while RJD may get 8, Congress 3, RLSP, HAM and VIP getting one each. In Gujarat, according to the survey, Congress may get just two seats leaving the rest 24 to BJP while in Madhya Pradesh, BJP may win 21 and Congress remaining 8.

In Maharashtra, BJP may win 21 while its ally Shiv Sena could get 13. Congress may win 7, NCP 6 and others one.

STATE-WISE BREAK UP OF SEAT PREDICTIONS:

Uttar Pradesh: BJP 40, BSP 16, SP 18, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1

Uttarakhand: BJP 3, Congress 2

Rajasthan: BJP 17, Congress 8

West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 28, BJP 12, Cong 1, LF 1

Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 14, BJP 6, Congress 1

Madhya Pradesh: BJP 21, Congress 8

Chhattisgarh: BJP 3, Congress 8

Punjab: Congress 9, Akali Dal 2, AAP 1, BJP 1

Haryana: BJP 9, Congress 1

Bihar: BJP 14, RJD 8, JD(U) 9, Congress 3, LJP 3, RLSP 1, HAM 1, VIP 1

Jharkhand: BJP 9, JMM 2, Congress 3

Gujarat: BJP 24, Congress 2

Himachal Pradesh: BJP 3, Congress 1

Maharashtra: BJP 21, Shiv Sena 13, Congress 7, NCP 6, Others 1

Goa: BJP 2, Congress 0

Tamil Nadu: DMK 16, AIADMK 10, Congress 5, BJP 1, PMK 2, Other-5

Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 18, TDP 7

Telangana: TRS12, AIMIM 1, Congress 4

Karnataka: BJP 16, Congress 10, JD(S) 2

Kerala: UDF 14, LDF 5, BJP 1

Jammu Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 3, Congress 1

Assam: BJP 5, AIUDF 2, Congress 5, Others 2

Other North East states: BJP 4, Congress 4, NPP 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1

Delhi: BJP 7

Other Union Territories: BJP 4, Congress 2