Second Covid-19 surge will worsen, scientists warn

As the second wave of the Covid-19 epidemic in India swells up, scientists have warned that the second surge would worsen in the coming weeks as seen from the computer models that are being used to track the outbreak.

The alert is based on the rising value of R (reproduction number) – a parameter to denote the virus's ability to spread the infections – in almost all the big states. In 16 out of 17 states, the R value is significantly higher than 1, Kerala being the lone exception.

An R value of 1.3 would mean that 10 infected persons can spread the disease to 13 others. For the epidemic to shrink, the R value should be less than one.

"With data up to March 17, the overall situation has worsened. The R for the country as a whole climbed to 1.19, the highest value I have estimated since August last year,” said Sitabhra Sinha, a scientist at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai who was tracking the outbreak with his model since last year.

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“Almost all the states with the highest Covid-19 active cases have R values greater than one. Kerala is the only silver lining but its benefit has been completely offset by Maharashtra as its R climbed to 1.29. All major metros have R greater than one, with Pune having an R value of 1.36 with Mumbai following close behind at 1.28,” he told DH.

Other states with such high R values are Chhattisgarh (1.44), Punjab (1.32), Karnataka (1.3), Haryana (1.33), Gujarat (1.24), Madhya Pradesh (1.25) and Delhi (1.23). Among the metro cities, Chennai (1.2) and Bengaluru (1.17) are causes of worry.

As many as 40,953 new Covid-19 cases have been reported till 8 AM on Saturday riding high on 25,681 cases reported in Maharashtra.

For the third consecutive day, Punjab reported more than 2,000 daily new cases whereas Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh reported more than 1,000 daily new cases for the first time. Karnataka and Gujarat too reported more than 1,000 fresh cases every day for the last few days.

According to the Union Health Ministry 188 deaths were reported in the last 24 hours. Maharashtra saw the maximum casualties (70) followed by Punjab (38). More than 4.36 crores of vaccine doses have been administered so far.