A landslide win and a cloud of distrust

Despite the sweep in Bihar, the BJP and its allies will have to contend with allegations over a friendly umpire

There was a time in India when, whatever the election results, the Election Commission of India (ECI) was the acknowledged winner of the battle and the chief protector of India’s democratic traditions. The ECI was initially tame, then it became a tiger under Chief Election Commissioner T N Seshan and has since kept up its image as a fierce protector and an independent arbiter of the one ingredient that is critical for the democratic success of India – the process of elections. Come election time, and political parties would test boundaries, but the ECI would stand up, ensure that the violations were called out, and increase scrutiny and oversight so that the process was not only fair but also seen to be fair. That is now likely to be seen as the golden age that is no more a part of the Indian electoral process. The loss carries implications that are not fully grasped by an ECI that has allowed itself to be drawn into a vortex of controversies that it needn’t have. Today, the end of elections marks the beginning of a new battle over results, a slide that should cause serious concern to the entire political system and to the proud history of a young nation that has successfully run a reasonable and fair election process since independence.

The near-clean sweep by the BJP-led NDA alliance in the Bihar assembly elections is also marred by the infirmities that have crept into the working of the ECI. The results, therefore, send complex signals to the nation. They become a cause of lingering doubt. It is no longer possible for one side to be sworn in for a new term with due acknowledgement by the loser, both bowing to the mandate of the people and their power to decide the political futures of candidates. They rob the system of its integrity, of its finality in the reading and the enforcing of the will of the people, and therefore do injustice not only to the losers but also to the winners and to the political system as a whole. In this reading, the ECI has let all sides down by not keeping itself beyond allegations and suspicions that now cloud its various actions.

In Bihar, too, like has happened in earlier elections in Maharashtra and Haryana, the winning side will have to contend with the allegations that they romped home with an umpire whose role remains hotly contested, placing the fairness of the electoral process under a cloud. Further, the allegations are more than a case of sour grapes and have now become a growing part of recent election campaigns and results, putting Indian democracy at risk from the very structures meant to protect and strengthen it.

On the one hand, the plain numbers from Bihar reiterate the overwhelming dominance of the Narendra Modi-led BJP machinery and its mastery of alliances, messages, and imagery. Apart from its general strengths, a variety of Bihar-specific reasons are also being cited, examples of which are Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s so-called popularity or long service, the Rs 10,000 per woman giveaway to 75 lakh women in the thick of election season, longer-term actions that have reportedly won the hearts of women voters like prohibition, and claims of improved law and order.

This standard ex post facto reading that builds on the lines argued by the incumbents reflects some ground realities, but can it convincingly explain the landslide, which brought 202 of the 243 seats to the NDA, the BJP in the lead with 89 seats, and Nitish Kumar’s JD (United) with 85?

The sushasan puzzle

The counter argument, equally valid, would ask how a nine-time Chief Minister who has been called paltu-Ram for his changing affiliations and criticised for being “hijacked” by the BJP, can lead a victory of these proportions. Even considering the backbone of the BJP’s superior strategy and resources in the system, this was an incumbency that has not particularly seen Bihar flourish. The lack of jobs for the youth or lack of investments is the flip side of the coin that buys voter loyalty with gifts and giveaways, even if these will mar long-term governance and fiscal management.

Outmigration for work remains the bane of Bihar and mirrors the lack of opportunities built in the state to provide decent employment for the masses. Seasonal migration is more predominant, with 72.8 per cent of the seasonal migrants seen in the Middle Ganga Plain coming from the state, according to a 2019 study by the Indian Institute of Population Studies, Mumbai. The reasons: poverty, unemployment, landlessness, and lack of food. There is no evidence that historic disadvantages of the state have changed dramatically in recent years.

It is equally fair to note that there was some disarray in the ranks of the Opposition, but also energy seen in the rallies led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Tejashwi Yadav, the Chief Ministerial candidate of the RJD-Congress-led Mahagathbandhan alliance. The Vote Adhikaar awareness rallies by the Leader of the Opposition, Rahul Gandhi, were also noted for the good response received at the grassroots. Gandhi began the ‘right to vote’ movement in Babu Jagjivan Ram’s political home of Sasaram and covered some 20 districts.

The growing crescendo on the issue of the fairness of electoral processes cannot be dismissed easily. An election commission that these days is defended only by the BJP, and otherwise stands discredited, is a deeper loss that cannot be washed away by the victory celebrations of the BJP or its allies. What the winners do not realise is that they may well have won, but they too have been robbed of the prize because when the doubts linger, the victory is but pyrrhic. The angst this causes among people and political parties will likely play out in some very complex and challenging ways in the days ahead.

(The writer is a journalist and faculty member at SPJIMR; Syndicate: The Billion Press)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.