A river beyond borders

Swathi Kalyani

The Chinese government’s approval of the hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo – known as Brahmaputra in India and Jamuna in Bangladesh – raises ecological concerns for these downstream nations. In response, India and Bangladesh should engage with each other to address existing river disputes, build cooperative hydro-political ties, and present a unified voice regarding the challenges of this initiative for the welfare of millions of people dependent on the river.

Alterations to Brahmaputra’s flow can adversely affect the dependencies on Teesta – its major tributary – which originates from the Khangtse glacier in the northeastern Himalayas of India. It flows through the Indian states of Sikkim and West Bengal before entering Bangladesh. The river is 414 km long with a catchment area of 12,160 sq km, of which 19% falls within Bangladesh and supports 8.5% of its population. The population currently relying on Brahmaputra may turn to Teesta for their water requirements, potentially exceeding its hydraulic carrying capacity. The situation highlights the importance of regional cooperation.

Recent remarks by Syeda Rizwana Hasan, advisor to Bangladesh’s water resources department, and Muhammad Yunus, chief advisor to the interim government of Bangladesh, concerning negotiations with India about the long-standing Teesta river dispute, create an opportunity for India to address this transboundary issue.

Teesta has been at the centre of a protracted water-sharing dispute between India and Bangladesh, straining the bilateral relations and impacting the large population relying on its waters. A 2011 draft treaty, proposed by India, offered a water-sharing agreement, allocating 42.5% of Teesta’s waters to India and 37.5% to Bangladesh. However, the deal stalled due to Bangladesh’s demand for a 50-50 share during lean season and political opposition in West Bengal stating that the release of more water would harm its agrarian needs.

During the dry season (November-April), water flow of Teesta decreases sharply, resulting in water-scarce conditions, negatively impacting livelihoods of over 30 million people in West Bengal and the northwestern region of Bangladesh which views it as a lifeline for irrigation, fisheries, and overall rural development.

Conversely, more than 59% of the Teesta catchment area lies above 3,000 m and is characterised by steep slopes. This, along with the increasing occurrence of cloudbursts and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), makes Teesta susceptible to flash floods, putting the lower basins in West Bengal and further in Bangladesh at risk.

Transboundary river management

Climate change, infrastructural developments and increasing population density are expected to severely impact Teesta, exacerbating water scarcity and pollution. Rainfall variations can result in unprecedented river flow patterns, reducing water availability, while overpopulation leads to increased waste and demand, further stressing the river’s ecosystem and surrounding communities, hence making sustainable initiatives the need of the minute. Comprehensive stakeholder engagements among hydrology experts and leaders of both sides, on a regular basis, like the Indus Basin Knowledge Forum or Mekong River Commission, can create the necessary foundations for the required transboundary river management framework.

Currently, the number of weather stations, especially in the upstream region of Teesta, are a handful and existing data-sharing regulations focus only upon monsoon and extreme weather scenarios. Increasing the number of hydrometeorological stations in the river basin and creating a year-round shared resource database as a stepping stone would promote transparency, build trust, and overcome political stalemates.

Applying geospatial technology can be helpful in building a database that can help reconcile conflicting interests and promote fair water-sharing mechanisms. Satellite imagery helps collect data on watershed dynamics, monitor land use patterns, identify water pollution, assess crop intensity, evaluate urban density, and create real-time maps of flood extents. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) effectively combine spatial and non-spatial data to produce comprehensive maps and forecasting models. This integration supports priority-based policy formulation.

Given the changing political waves in Bangladesh and the establishment of the Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership between China and Bangladesh in 2024, India needs to meander along and find a plausible solution to ongoing and upcoming challenges with Bangladesh, hence maintaining a reliable partnership with the latter.

The Teesta river dispute emphasises the intricate relationship between federalism, geopolitics, natural resources, and human livelihoods. While diplomatic negotiations remain essential,incorporating remote sensing and GIS technology offers a practical route towards resolving the impasse. By leveraging these modern tools, India and Bangladesh can craft data-driven, adaptable, and sustainable agreements that ensure fair water distribution, enhance cooperation, and secure the future for millions dependent on Teesta and many other shared rivers. This could serve as a global example of cooperative transboundary river management.

(The writer is a research analyst at Takshashila Institution)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.