<p>Three recent, unrelated developments reveal the true nature of global affairs today. The first was the military parade conducted by China to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People’s War of Resistance, which not only showcased the country’s military might but also demonstrated the complete control that President Xi Jinping has on the domestic and foreign policies. The second is the thaw in India-China relations, grounded in the NSA-level meeting of the Special Representatives and the meeting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin. The third development is the assessment that the attitude of US President Donald Trump towards India and Prime Minister Modi has drawn India closer to China. All three signal an important geopolitical shift, with Xi Jinping, for now, coming out as the clear winner.</p>.<p>The perception that President Trump’s actions against India by imposing a 50% tariff have made India move closer to Russia and China reflects the reality of nations increasingly prioritising national interests. The position held by Modi on bilateral relations with the US is based on an understanding of the value of India-US ties and is principled on India’s national interests. With his recent approach to Modi, Trump appears to be trying to make the case that he is still friends with the Indian PM, but India needs to change its attitude on trade. This, to say the least, is a crude attempt to play divide and rule and is bound to fail, even as officials in the US administration lash out at India.</p>.<p>In the current state of play of India-US relations, Trump tends to treat India as a third-world country and does not want to negotiate unless it is on his terms. That is what he tried to do, unsuccessfully, with Putin over Ukraine and failed. This indicates personality-driven diplomacy. Also, Trump is not interested in a partnership with India; he wants New Delhi to accept his diktats. This is an extension of the traditional US policy towards India, except in cases where it suited Washington D.C. to play along. Therefore, India must bide its time, continue to engage with the relevant individuals, and focus on deliverables that are pending, such as the aero engines.</p>.<p><strong>Engines of collaboration</strong></p>.<p>India also needs to restore the trade negotiations. Diplomacy has to focus on getting the talks back on track, notwithstanding the possibility of Trump dismissing all Indian proposals. Given that this venture could take time, India is better placed to diversify its energy basket with countries that are not being sanctioned by the US or the EU. It has to live with Trump’s tariffs that were imposed as a tantrum and aimed to add costs. Two immediate impacts have been felt. One, in the package of GST reforms announced by the Prime Minister; the other, in the rupee/dollar rate.</p>.<p>Indigenisation and Transfer of Technology (ToT) are the two main pillars on which India can survive the tariff wars with the US. This is particularly important in the fields of advanced technology, including semiconductors and chip manufacturing, defence technology, and ammunition. The US is not going to budge at this stage, necessitating India’s engagement with countries such as France and Japan.</p>.<p>Jet engines, for instance, are one area for collaboration. Japan may have its reservations about full ToT with a provision of source codes, but it will be a much more reliable bet. India has, so far, received only two GE-404 engines for the Tejas MK-1A, first ordered in 2021. The delay, ostensibly on account of irregular global supply chains, also led GE to temporarily close down the production line of F404 engines. It has since been restarted. The diversification of engines away from GE, with potential inputs from the French company Safran for the AMCA, is a smart move – this has been in the pipeline but was given effect only in the aftermath of the tariffs.</p>.<p>The reality before India is that it may be better to export goods to Russia and other countries, and import technology with ToT from friendly partners. The US is a ‘friend’, China, an ‘adversary’, and Russia, a ‘strategic partner’. All these are phrases emerging in the new world order. ‘Blow your own trumpet to move forward’ is the message coming from the US. Let us do so.</p>.<p><em>(The writer is a former director of the National Security Council Secretariat)</em></p>
<p>Three recent, unrelated developments reveal the true nature of global affairs today. The first was the military parade conducted by China to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People’s War of Resistance, which not only showcased the country’s military might but also demonstrated the complete control that President Xi Jinping has on the domestic and foreign policies. The second is the thaw in India-China relations, grounded in the NSA-level meeting of the Special Representatives and the meeting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin. The third development is the assessment that the attitude of US President Donald Trump towards India and Prime Minister Modi has drawn India closer to China. All three signal an important geopolitical shift, with Xi Jinping, for now, coming out as the clear winner.</p>.<p>The perception that President Trump’s actions against India by imposing a 50% tariff have made India move closer to Russia and China reflects the reality of nations increasingly prioritising national interests. The position held by Modi on bilateral relations with the US is based on an understanding of the value of India-US ties and is principled on India’s national interests. With his recent approach to Modi, Trump appears to be trying to make the case that he is still friends with the Indian PM, but India needs to change its attitude on trade. This, to say the least, is a crude attempt to play divide and rule and is bound to fail, even as officials in the US administration lash out at India.</p>.<p>In the current state of play of India-US relations, Trump tends to treat India as a third-world country and does not want to negotiate unless it is on his terms. That is what he tried to do, unsuccessfully, with Putin over Ukraine and failed. This indicates personality-driven diplomacy. Also, Trump is not interested in a partnership with India; he wants New Delhi to accept his diktats. This is an extension of the traditional US policy towards India, except in cases where it suited Washington D.C. to play along. Therefore, India must bide its time, continue to engage with the relevant individuals, and focus on deliverables that are pending, such as the aero engines.</p>.<p><strong>Engines of collaboration</strong></p>.<p>India also needs to restore the trade negotiations. Diplomacy has to focus on getting the talks back on track, notwithstanding the possibility of Trump dismissing all Indian proposals. Given that this venture could take time, India is better placed to diversify its energy basket with countries that are not being sanctioned by the US or the EU. It has to live with Trump’s tariffs that were imposed as a tantrum and aimed to add costs. Two immediate impacts have been felt. One, in the package of GST reforms announced by the Prime Minister; the other, in the rupee/dollar rate.</p>.<p>Indigenisation and Transfer of Technology (ToT) are the two main pillars on which India can survive the tariff wars with the US. This is particularly important in the fields of advanced technology, including semiconductors and chip manufacturing, defence technology, and ammunition. The US is not going to budge at this stage, necessitating India’s engagement with countries such as France and Japan.</p>.<p>Jet engines, for instance, are one area for collaboration. Japan may have its reservations about full ToT with a provision of source codes, but it will be a much more reliable bet. India has, so far, received only two GE-404 engines for the Tejas MK-1A, first ordered in 2021. The delay, ostensibly on account of irregular global supply chains, also led GE to temporarily close down the production line of F404 engines. It has since been restarted. The diversification of engines away from GE, with potential inputs from the French company Safran for the AMCA, is a smart move – this has been in the pipeline but was given effect only in the aftermath of the tariffs.</p>.<p>The reality before India is that it may be better to export goods to Russia and other countries, and import technology with ToT from friendly partners. The US is a ‘friend’, China, an ‘adversary’, and Russia, a ‘strategic partner’. All these are phrases emerging in the new world order. ‘Blow your own trumpet to move forward’ is the message coming from the US. Let us do so.</p>.<p><em>(The writer is a former director of the National Security Council Secretariat)</em></p>
