A ticking time bomb

The unabated migration of Bangladeshi nationals into Assam is not just a localised problem but a gigantic national issue.

It is a colossal tragedy in India’s 65 years of independence. Over 4 lakh people have been rendered homeless in the brutal internecine clashes in Assam. It is a tragedy that has not been given adequate attention to, neither by the governments – the Central and the state – nor by the people of India, neither before it happened, when it was showing all signs of flaring up, nor after it took place in all its misery. Had a similar calamity happened in any other part of our country, would the reactions have been so muted? Assam and, in general, the northeast of India have been a victim of neglect.

In Assam, where the present avoidable violence has taken place, the reason for the hostilities is obvious. It is the uncontrolled illegal infiltration by the neighbouring Bangladeshis. These illegal migrants usurp the land and the means of livelihood and after a few years are even absorbed as citizens of India. While illegal migration is a phenomenon that occurs in several parts of the world, the migration into Assam is characterised by its sheer size and that it has gone on practically unrestricted by the Central and state governments over several decades.

As per one claim, while the rise in voters at the national level is 1.6 per cent, it is 16 per cent in Assam in the 2010 voters’ list. According to a report, so far 15 million Bangladesh nationals have infiltrated in India; another study puts the number at over 20 million.
It is true that Assam had local muslim population. However, when the number of people of muslim community shot up in a short span of time and formed a majority in the districts of Dhubri (70 per cent), Goalpara (50 per cent), Barpeta (56 per cent) and Hailakandi (55 per cent) -- all districts bordering Bangladesh, the government should have woken up to the problem of illegal migration. The point is certainly not about the community or the ethnicity, but about the utter disregard of an inter-country problem by our successive governments that have allowed this issue to fester.

This is a silent encroachment by Bangladeshis, passing on part of their demographic problem to us. No one in our government seems to be bothered much. In fact, the reticence of our government needlessly gives our irresponsible neighbour the handle to make it look like an unsolved internal communal problem which it is not.
One ought to notice that the north-eastern land-mass of India – consisting of the seven states of Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland - is connected to the rest of the nation by a very narrow strip of land. This strip is of vital strategic importance for India.

National problem

If insurgents from the neighbouring country succeed in severing the northeastern land mass from the rest of India, it will be disastrous. The unabated migration of Bangladeshi nationals into Assam is not a localised problem pertaining to the state of Assam; it is a gigantic national problem. One is only astounded as to why have the governments been so lackadaisical about a matter that is of enormous long-term political and economic consequence to the nation.

In fact, the government’s Illegal Migrants Determination by Tribunals Act (IMDT) - which places the onus of proving nationality on the citizen who makes the complaint and not on the migrant - emboldens illegal migration.

While the current crisis is in Assam, the problem of illegal migrants from Bangladesh also exists in other bordering states like Tripura and Meghalaya. The Garo Hills in Meghalaya have been used by Bangladesh-based militants for various nefarious activities including arms and drugs smuggling. The illegal migration provides a convenient cover for India’s enemies to arrange training camps in Bangladesh and infiltrate the terrorists into India through the states bordering that country. Even states like Nagaland and Manipur that do not have a border with Bangladesh, have suffered from this illegal migration. On the surface of it, the problem in the North-East may appear like a demographic problem; but in fact it is a time-bomb ticking for the fragmentation of our country.

Northeastern states suffer pronounced separatist activity. While Assam has ULFA, Nagaland has National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) demanding an autonomous 'Nagalim' (greater Nagaland) including the Naga inhabited territory of Assam, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Myanmar, Manipur has Manipur People’s Liberation Front (MPLF) asking for ‘liberation’ while Kuki tribals get support from insurgent groups in Myanmar.

Much of the problem has to do with a downright lack of economic development in these states due to the continued neglect by the central government for several decades. The youth is left with either tending to agriculture – the scope for which is limited – or holding guns as an insurgent.  Instead of a compassionate look at the underlying fundamental economic issues, the government has chosen a high-handed confrontationist approach by imposing Armed Forces Special Protection Act. It only aggravates the matters further.

Perhaps, for the politicians at the all-India level, smaller states with little vote power do not matter much. Also one cannot rule out the cultural dimension.

There has not been a political leader at the Centre who would carry with him/her all sections of this diverse multi-ethnic multi-cultural country. Northeastern part of our country has been feeling alienated since a long time and there has been little effort towards their socio-economic and cultural integration with the rest of India. Lack of effective leadership with vision and commitment has been a persistent problem.

(The writer is a former professor at IIM, Bangalore)