Can AAP do it again in Delhi?

Kejriwal’s popularity, flagship programmes will be key drivers of the party’s poll campaign

Can the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) achieve a hat-trick in the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections? The party has consistently drawn legitimacy from its grassroots appeal, strong governance record, and effective outreach to a diverse voter base. By all accounts, AAP’s electoral prospects remain strong. However, challenges from the BJP and the Congress add an element of unpredictability to the three-corner contest.

AAP is on strong footing with its local leadership and its governance record. The party’s focus on education, healthcare, and subsidised utilities like water and electricity has created a loyal voter base, particularly among the urban poor and the middle class. Its flagship programmes such as the transformation of Delhi’s government schools and the Mohalla Clinics initiative have earned widespread acclaim. These tangible improvements in public services resonate strongly with voters and differentiate AAP from its rivals. Arvind Kejriwal’s recent announcement of the Sanjeevani Yojana, offering free hospital treatment to all senior citizens in Delhi, is being hailed as a masterstroke. Many believe it could significantly boost support among senior citizen voters.

Kejriwal’s popularity remains unaffected even after his brief stint in jail. Many perceive him as a dedicated leader who has consistently prioritised their welfare. This perception, coupled with his governance achievements, reinforces his image as a steadfast and relatable figure in Delhi’s political landscape. His emphasis on local issues, as opposed to the broader national agendas often pursued by BJP and Congress, ensures that AAP’s messaging remains relevant to Delhi’s residents. The party's well-organised cadre and emphasis on door-to-door campaigning give it a significant edge. Its use of technology and data-driven outreach strategies also ensures effective voter engagement, particularly in a city where urban density can make traditional campaigning methods less effective.

While AAP has consistently outperformed BJP in Delhi’s Assembly elections since 2015, the latter remains a formidable opponent due to its strong national presence and resources. The BJP’s ability to mobilise its organisational machinery, backed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, poses a significant challenge. The party may attempt to capitalise on issues such as law and order, urban infrastructure, and national security to appeal to Delhi’s electorate.

Despite being directionless, the Congress could still act as the proverbial wet blanket. If the party manages to consolidate its traditional voter base, particularly among the minorities and lower-income groups, it could take votes away from AAP, thereby indirectly benefiting BJP.

However, the Congress’ organisational weaknesses and leadership challenges in Delhi make a full-scale revival difficult to envision in the short term. It remains to be seen whether a low-profile Sandeep Dixit can give a tough fight to Kejriwal in the New Delhi constituency.

A strong urban appeal

AAP’s ability to address urban issues effectively will likely be a decisive factor. The party’s track record in improving public transportation and ensuring affordable housing can appeal to a broad spectrum of voters. By Kejriwal’s own admission, his government plans to focus on cleaning the highly polluted Yamuna river if re-elected. Meanwhile, BJP appears more occupied with launching personal attacks on Kejriwal than presenting a policy blueprint for Delhi, particularly regarding measures to tackle the city’s toxic air pollution.

AAP’s welfare policies, often branded as “freebies” by its critics, remain immensely popular. Subsidised electricity and water tariffs, free bus rides for women, and the expansion of healthcare facilities have directly improved the quality of life for many. The party’s ability to convincingly defend these policies will be crucial.

Given BJP’s penchant for leveraging polarising narratives, AAP’s approach to maintaining communal harmony and focusing on inclusive governance could work to its advantage. Delhi’s diverse population often responds positively to campaigns that emphasise unity and local development over divisive rhetoric. Many voters may view AAP as the only credible choice for addressing local issues effectively.

While AAP appears to have the upper hand, the upcoming election is by no means a foregone conclusion. The BJP’s aggressive campaigning and its potential to exploit perceived governance lapses could narrow the gap. Similarly, if Congress manages to unify its fragmented voter base, it could alter the electoral dynamics. Ultimately, the elections will serve as a litmus test for AAP’s governance model and its capacity to maintain its dominance in a politically vibrant city like Delhi. If AAP successfully navigates the challenges posed by BJP and Congress, it could further bolster its urban governance credentials, with implications for its broader ambitions on the national stage.

(The writer is a Delhi-based journalist)