In strategic affairs, every crisis presents an opportunity. It depends on the willingness of a nation's foreign and security policy establishment to leverage the possibilities in a situation. In the past, India has used natural and human disasters to demonstrate its willingness to act as a responsible and significant international player.
The Tsunami-relief effort of 2004 was an example of such an approach. The disaster relief efforts launched in concert with the US, Australia and Japan helped India deepen strategic relationships with these countries and led to the emergence of the Quad grouping.
India's recent steps to help the earthquake-battered Afghanistan and the crisis-hit Sri Lanka are examples of availing these crises to further national security and foreign policy interests.
Afghanistan
When the Taliban took over power in Afghanistan last August, India had closed its embassy. It was deemed too risky to operate the embassy after the fall of Kabul. The Taliban's close relationship with Pakistan and the experience with the Taliban regime in Kabul were key driving factors in India's decision.
However, geostrategic realities have not allowed India or the Taliban to stay away from each other. Since last August, both have attempted to engage with each other. India even dispatched large-scale wheat assistance via Pakistan to help the Afghan people.
The visit of the Indian delegation early this month indicated that India was rethinking its policy. During this visit, the delegation conducted n assessment of the security situation. The recent, devastating earthquake has opened another opportunity to re-establish the Indian presence on the ground.
According to an MEA press release, India has deployed a "technical team" to Kabul "to closely monitor and coordinate the efforts of various stakeholders for the effective delivery of humanitarian assistance". The team has been "deployed in our Embassy" there, it said.
The disaster has presented India with the prospect of reopening the embassy without actually recognising the Taliban regime. It serves the dual purpose of having a diplomatic presence on the ground to protect Indian interests and minimise the influence of anti-India elements.
The Taliban, too, is a divided house with various factions jostling consistently for influence. The Indian presence on the ground will be leveraged to engage with different factions. For the Taliban, reopening the Indian embassy to host a "technical team" helps diversify their external partners, reduces dependence on Pakistan and signals their growing acceptability.
The regional context
The possibility of working with Iran, Russia and Central Asian states in Afghanistan remains real for India. The visit of Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian this month to India has been crucial. He met National Security Advisor Ajit Doval in Delhi and called on the prime minister.
India's reopening of its embassy in Kabul and the overall situation in Afghanistan is likely to have been discussed during the visit. The official MEA press release on the visit mentioned the discussions on the status of the Chabahar port developed by India. The port had become an important connectivity initiative to access Afghanistan via Iran during the last years of the America-backed Ghani regime.
The discussions on Chabahar signal India's willingness to re-engage with Afghanistan. The port is strategically significant for India as it establishes its presence in the northern Arabian sea, near Pakistan's China-developed port of Gwadar, and provides land access to southern Afghanistan.
The recent shipment of India-bound goods from Russia via the Caspian Sea-Iran route has underscored the importance of connectivity in Eurasia. The change of government in Pakistan and the consequent arrest of the ever-sliding trajectory of the America-Pakistan relationship are changing the regional security dynamics. India has to adjust its policy in response to these changes.
Sri Lanka
In the case of Sri Lanka, India has emerged as the largest supplier of food, fuel and medical assistance. India has extended currency swap arrangements and lines of credit to Sri Lanka to help it overcome the difficult fiscal situation. Overall, the Indian assistance is pegged at approximately US $3 billion, and such help will likely flow in the coming months.
China looms large over Sri Lanka's economy. It has also gained considerable strategic leverage in Sri Lanka. The Chinese financing of infrastructure projects has led to the debt trap for Sri Lanka. However, China did not help Sri Lanka when it needed it the most. On the contrary, the timely and much-needed assistance has helped India regain influence in the island nation. It is consistent with India's self-projection as the "first responder" and "preferred security partner" in the Indian Ocean region.
Overall, the examples of Afghanistan and Sri Lanka demonstrate how India is turning the crisis into an opportunity to recover the lost ground. The momentum needs to be sustained.
(Sankalp Gurjar is a strategic analyst based in Delhi)
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