JOIN USDragon's shadow creeps closer across the Palk Strait
Following up on the docking of its spy ship Yuan Wang 5 at Hambantota port (August 16-22) in south Sri Lanka, despite protests from Delhi, China is sending its Colombo envoy with hefty gifts on a tour of the north and east during early September.
Keeping his 'will be back soon' promise made on his maiden trip to Jaffna last December, Ambassador Qi Zhenhong now carries a clear mandate to begin the process of severing the 'umbilical cord' bond the Tamils in the region have with their Indian brethren across the Palk Strait—hoping to bomb down the Tamil buffer that Delhi hopes to nurture in the event of a showdown with the Dragon—not an improbable prospect.
Also Read | Chinese recon ship leaves Sri Lanka's Hambantota port after riling India, US
Among the strategically planned 'woo the Tamils' engagements for Qi is a visit to the Jaffna University to distribute scholarships worth millions of Sri Lankan rupees, plus deliver a speech on the virtues of holding hands with China for speeding up the development of the debt-ridden island while brightening their own careers. Trips are also scheduled to Trincomalee and Amparai, the Tamils-dominated districts in the eastern province. Agenda: ditto.
Qi's north-east mission should trigger the Indian foreign office to step up its efforts, slack and sloppy so far, to regain the Tamils' support that Delhi lost when the Tigers lost the Eelam war. While most of the Tamil leaders are squabbling among themselves, a few are found flirting with Beijing and openly abusing India. An urgent and elaborate damage-limiting exercise is required for remedying the Tamil mess.
Influential friends in Colombo tell me Qi has a 'hotline' to President Xi Jinping and enjoys a special equation with the 'boss' who reportedly gave him the responsibility of consolidating Beijing's hold on the strategically important Indian Ocean island nation when he flew him to Colombo a couple of years ago. Qi lost no time in making inroads to not just the ruling Sinhala junta but also the growing tribe of 'ambitious' Tamil politicians. His trip to Jaffna in December was the first by any Chinese head of mission, and Delhi was rattled by his provocative conduct and the 'robust' pronouncements he had then made; particularly his ominous declaration, 'This is only a beginning', made at the end of a sensational boat ride to a Palk Strait islet barely 40 minutes boat ride away from Rameswaram.
And during that trip, Qi had also made friends with the Jaffna fishermen through liberal gifts of nets, Covid kits and promises of collaborative marine projects, knowing fully well that the fishermen nursed long-standing grudges against their Tamil Nadu counterparts as the latter repeatedly poached the Lankan waters. He is sure to shake hands with the fishermen again on the coming trip, well aware that they could be turned into potent PLA volunteers when the need arises—much like the huge number of Tibetan youths being recruited to man the LAC in the tough Himalayan terrain. Fisheries Minister Douglas Devananda, a former Tamil militant who heads the Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP), is most likely to chaperone Qi on this trip, too, just as he did the last time. The island's newspapers front-paged his assertion, made a couple of days back that Sri Lanka should independently sort out its problems "instead of rushing to Modi for intervention and help".
But an influential section of the Tamil leadership is convinced that the safe future of the island, particularly of their ilk in the north-east, lies under an Indian umbrella. "A strong delegation of Tamil MPs and senior leaders desires meeting with Prime Minister Modi and Foreign Minister Jaishankar with a pledge of support for India in its efforts to keep our region free of the ravenous Chinese control. We hope to get an early appointment as time is running out", an influential Tamil leader told me in a phone interview. "There are a couple of anti-India, pro-Beijing MPs in the TNA (Tamil National Alliance), but we have begun the process of isolating them. We need India's help," he said, requesting anonymity "for the present". The hard truth is that Delhi now needs the Tamils' alliance much more than ever before.
Qi's quick moves make clear that the Hambantota docking of spy ship Yuan Wang 5 was not merely a 'replenishment' halt as Beijing claimed but was, in fact, the beginning of the new chapter in its manual for taking control of the island. Not only did China arm-twisted President Ranil Wickremesinghe to brush aside Delhi's objection to the ship's coming, but it also accused India of acting like a regional bully and interfering in its neighbour's collaboration with other nations (read China) for their own development. Qi repeated that charge and said things worse in an article he wrote in the Lankan media a few days back, about "countries far or near bullying Sri Lanka" and stating that Sri Lanka "overcame aggression from its northern neighbour 17 times". The diatribe did not stop with that; he linked the Chinese military action in the Taiwan Strait in the aftermath of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan with the "successful docking" of Yuan Wang 5 at Hambantota and declared that both Sri Lanka and China were "jointly safeguarding each other's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity".
A clear giveaway of the ship's mission, right? 'Replenishment' was just an excuse, whereas the real purpose was to begin the process of tightening the noose around Lanka, and stretching the rope northwards. Shocked India took a while to respond, but when it did, it was a pretty sharp and direct hit. In a first-time attack on China or its envoy, the Indian Mission, in a tweet, said Qi in his article had "violated basic diplomatic etiquette" and exposed the true designs behind his spy ship's Lanka coming. The ship, it may be recalled, has a 750-km range to track sensitive installations and also map the ocean bed for storage to be used against the Indian submarines during any future engagements.
I have read about how China prepares its plans—both domestic and global—several decades ahead and pursues the set goals irrespective of leadership changes. I have also read how Xi Jinping established himself at the very top, for a very long inning ahead as he is all set to get re-elected General Secretary for an unprecedented third successive term at the National Congress of the Communist Party of China coming up in October; and how he is spearheading the super-ambitious plan to take control of not just the Asian arena but also displace the US from its long-held throne. And how in the emerging new Cold War regime, China has already displaced Russia as the leader of the Red Axis.
And as we witness the new eruptions too—in Ukraine and Taiwan—they are both in the Asian region, and China has a major hand in playing. While Putin would not have launched his adventure without Xi's approval, the latter has a more direct role in bullying Taipei as Beijing has always claimed Taiwan to be an integral part of mainland China.
This brings me to Qi likening the situation in the Taiwan Strait to his ship docking at Hambantota. After suffering all that ear-shattering sabre-rattling from Beijing for about a month since the Pelosi trip, President Tsai Ing-Wen cleared her navy firing a few 'warning shots' to drive back the snooping Chinese drones from the Jinmen skies on Wednesday (August 30). Responding to her bravado that Taiwan would do nothing rashly "to give the other side an excuse to stir up conflict," but that did not mean her country "will not counter and exercise the right to self-defence," the quick-witted foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian in Beijing quipped: "Chinese drones flying over China's territory—what's there to be surprised at?"
A slightly modified version of this assertion could be Qi and Xi justifying landing their PLA in Sri Lanka at some future date, saying it's to protect the Chinese citizens and their projects on the island-'Chinese forces protecting Chinese assets; what's there to be surprised at, or questioned about?' We have seen reports of China pushing Islamabad to allow the setting up of PLA bases in Pakistan to protect its BRI projects and workers there.
I sometimes wonder if India let go of an opportunity to gain better control of its strategically placed southern neighbour when Mahinda Rajapaksa lost his presidential election and openly accused Delhi and the Indian intelligence agency, RAW, of toppling him. The successor regime—which owed its position to India if one goes by Mahinda's charge - might have yielded to such pressures as what China is now exerting on Pakistan, but Delhi chose to get on the back foot and let President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe land cosily into the Chinese trap.
Has India missed its bus to Sri Lanka? I hope not. Perhaps its Quad colleagues would help, or maybe not. They all have their own problems, though combining energies to counter Chinese expansionism is the prime purpose behind this collaboration. This common agenda could be put to its big test across the Palk Strait in the coming weeks.
(R Bhagwan Singh is a senior journalist based in Chennai, writing on Sri Lanka since the 1980s)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH