A trade deal turned disaster

At this stage, it may be safely said that India has lost the negotiation game and is at the receiving end of the now-failed project of bagging a trade deal with the United States. Barring any unexpected twist (which is not unlikely with President Donald Trump), it appears that the US will impose a 25% tariff on Indian imports, with the threat of a further “penalty” that will make trade between the two countries very difficult, if not unviable. The language Trump used for India, the world’s largest democracy, is humiliating to say the least. To assert that India, a sovereign nation, does “all things not good” and so deserves to be penalised is to mock a government that has gone out of its way to please and pamper Trump. The saga runs long – from five years ago, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was more than effusive towards Trump at a rally in Gujarat to February this year when Modi, at his inelegant best, usurped ‘MAGA’ (“Make American Great Again”), morphed it into ‘MIGA’ (“Make India Great Again”) and imagined that these would combine to script a “mega” partnership. It is not surprising that these remarks are the butt of ridicule today.

At one level, the collapse of the trade deal can be seen as a failure of Indian diplomacy. What is even more painful is that India appears to be left with no bargaining chips. Back to the wall, with little to stand up for but an odd desire to be seen in the Trump camp, there is nowhere to go now that Trump has pushed India into a corner. Trump was always headed that way. While it is understandable that the commerce ministry was hopeful and tried its best to get a deal, the role of the foreign ministry and the entire run-up must come in for scrutiny.

Yet, this may not be the time for recrimination. We can overlook past mistakes if not having the deal is a result of India's unwillingness to give in on some of Trump’s difficult demands, particularly in areas like the import of dairy and agricultural produce, specifically GM crops. If this was the deal-breaker, it can be argued that India had no choice but to let the deal go. India must ride this storm and prepare to face tough times. Let there be a clear message that no red lines will be crossed. But let there also be the understanding that frequent visits and photo ops are not a replacement for the hard work that diplomacy demands. This is a game that we may be getting wrong in more places than one.