<p class="bodytext">The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has won a landslide victory in the Bihar assembly election, securing more than four-fifths of the 243 seats and sealing another term for a Nitish Kumar-led government. This is an assertion of dominance that exceeds the coalition’s expectations, decimating the Mahagathbandhan anchored by the RJD and the Congress. For the two key NDA forces, the result echoes 2020 – the BJP has emerged as the largest party; it had more seats than partner JD(U) in the last assembly election, but Nitish Kumar dominated the alliance as its undisputed leader. Though he is set to continue as Chief Minister, a shift in power equations within the coalition is likely, given the BJP’s surge and the veteran leader’s declining health. The result carries significance at the Centre, where the JD(U) backs the Narendra Modi government; it will also drive the NDA’s poll machine as it enters campaign mode for elections in other states.</p>.<p class="bodytext">By projecting Nitish – sushasan babu and the state’s most popular leader – as the face of the campaign, the NDA played its cards right. Incumbency, it appears, has turned out to be an advantage for the man who enters his fifth successive term at the helm. The high voter turnout, particularly of women, is likely to have helped the NDA. Pro-women schemes and the government’s controversial cash transfers to over 1.5 crore women may have been key factors, if elections in other states are any indication. Welfare outreach, infrastructure development, and the assurance of personal safety may also have appealed to the voter. The NDA had in place an effective caste combination with the right balance of upper, backward, and extremely backward castes, and the Dalits. While all the NDA constituents, including the minor parties, worked on a shared cause, the Mahagathbandhan faltered in presenting a united front.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The distribution of vote shares and the impact of smaller parties such as the AIMIM and CPI(ML) may hold the psephologist’s interest. But the pitiable performance of the opposition raises serious questions about the nature and themes of its campaign, its electoral strategies, and its unity. Internal friction over Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership was evident even in the last leg of the campaign. There were 12 “friendly” contests among the constituents. It is doubtful if the promises made by the alliance were convincing enough to move the electorate, or its electoral planks striking enough for the voter to care. The opposition’s weaknesses and the incumbent’s organisational muscle and strong poll messaging, together, appear to have consolidated a vote for continuity in governance.</p>
<p class="bodytext">The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has won a landslide victory in the Bihar assembly election, securing more than four-fifths of the 243 seats and sealing another term for a Nitish Kumar-led government. This is an assertion of dominance that exceeds the coalition’s expectations, decimating the Mahagathbandhan anchored by the RJD and the Congress. For the two key NDA forces, the result echoes 2020 – the BJP has emerged as the largest party; it had more seats than partner JD(U) in the last assembly election, but Nitish Kumar dominated the alliance as its undisputed leader. Though he is set to continue as Chief Minister, a shift in power equations within the coalition is likely, given the BJP’s surge and the veteran leader’s declining health. The result carries significance at the Centre, where the JD(U) backs the Narendra Modi government; it will also drive the NDA’s poll machine as it enters campaign mode for elections in other states.</p>.<p class="bodytext">By projecting Nitish – sushasan babu and the state’s most popular leader – as the face of the campaign, the NDA played its cards right. Incumbency, it appears, has turned out to be an advantage for the man who enters his fifth successive term at the helm. The high voter turnout, particularly of women, is likely to have helped the NDA. Pro-women schemes and the government’s controversial cash transfers to over 1.5 crore women may have been key factors, if elections in other states are any indication. Welfare outreach, infrastructure development, and the assurance of personal safety may also have appealed to the voter. The NDA had in place an effective caste combination with the right balance of upper, backward, and extremely backward castes, and the Dalits. While all the NDA constituents, including the minor parties, worked on a shared cause, the Mahagathbandhan faltered in presenting a united front.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The distribution of vote shares and the impact of smaller parties such as the AIMIM and CPI(ML) may hold the psephologist’s interest. But the pitiable performance of the opposition raises serious questions about the nature and themes of its campaign, its electoral strategies, and its unity. Internal friction over Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership was evident even in the last leg of the campaign. There were 12 “friendly” contests among the constituents. It is doubtful if the promises made by the alliance were convincing enough to move the electorate, or its electoral planks striking enough for the voter to care. The opposition’s weaknesses and the incumbent’s organisational muscle and strong poll messaging, together, appear to have consolidated a vote for continuity in governance.</p>
