LJP opens up new possibilities in Bihar

The Lok Janshakti Party’s new posture in Bihar is likely to have an impact on the electoral scene in the state, its outcome, and perhaps on the government that may be formed after the elections. The LJP is now led by Chirag Paswan, son of Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan, who is in hospital. Though the BJP, the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) and the LJP are part of the NDA, Chirag Paswan has announced that the party would field candidates against the JD(U). But it would continue in the NDA and would not contest against BJP candidates. The BJP and the JD(U) have reached an electoral understanding, but the calculations may go awry, and positions may change if there are open contests between the JD(U) and the LJP. The split in the NDA will affect the JD(U)’s prospects but the BJP will be unscathed.

The LJP’s move is clearly meant to hurt Nitish Kumar and is the culmination of a series of spats the LJP has been having with the JD(U). The LJP, which has only two seats in the outgoing Assembly and has a limited caste-based following, does not have much to lose in the state. But by taking an independent stance vis-a-vis the JD(U), it can assert its position in the state, without losing its links with the BJP at the Centre. Nitish Kumar’s position has weakened in the state and there is an anti-incumbency sentiment. The LJP will not be affected by that after its distancing from the JD(U). If the LJP sticks to its stand, the outcome in many seats will be uncertain and can go against the JD(U) if the opposition alliance of the RJD, Congress and the Left parities also tailors its strategy accordingly.

The situation works to the advantage of the BJP and therefore there are even doubts whether the LJP is acting at its behest. The BJP has, for the record, accepted Nitish’s leadership during the elections in the state and has announced that he will remain the chief ministerial candidate of the alliance. But it is no secret that the party wants to lead the alliance in the state and the government. It will be in a position to claim the chief ministership if it wins more seats than the JD(U) in the elections. The present alignments of parties can undergo changes if the election throws up unexpected results. The LJP’s stance may have opened up the situation and may lead to new possibilities after the election. At another level, it may impact the NDA, which has seen desertions in the recent past.