Rain pattern is cause for anxiety

It is over three weeks since the south-west monsoon arrived, but its progress has not been steady and uniform. It came three days before its normal date of onset on June 1, prompting optimistic predictions from the Indian Meteorological Department. But the all-India rainfall for the first three weeks is 8% below the average for the period in the past. Even in the areas covered by the monsoon, the precipitation has been erratic. There is a 22% deficit in the southern peninsular region, and central India has got only 52% of its normal quantum of rainfall. But the country’s east and northeast have received excess rainfall. There is some deficit in the northwestern region also, where there used to be some showers before the monsoon actually hit the region.

Both the deficit and the excess rains have raised concerns. Floods have disrupted lives and farm operations in the northeast states, and the deficit has affected kharif sowing in other areas. Central India, where there is the biggest deficit, depends on rainfall for agriculture more than any other region. It may be too early to raise an alarm because the peak sowing time is the second half of June and the first half of July. Though the monsoon starts in June and ends in September, about two-thirds of the precipitation usually happens in July and August. June has traditionally accounted for less than 20% of the total rainfall. It is when rainfall is deficient in July and August that agriculture is usually adversely affected. The IMD makes specific monthly forecasts for only these two months. A late or early start of the monsoon or its performance in June are also not considered to have any influence on the rainfall in later months.

The IMD has predicted that rainfall in the next two months is likely to be “above normal”. But there have been years of deficient monsoon even when the IMD predicted a normal or above-normal rains. That is why the shortfall in June has given rise to some anxiety. Till now, there is about 15% shortfall in kharif acreage, compared to last year’s sowing during the same time. A good kharif crop is very important for the economy which is fighting inflation of a high order. Food prices are a key component of the price index, and they are already high. The Reserve Bank of India has made its projections of inflation and GDP on the basis of the IMD’s forecast of a good monsoon. Even when the monsoon is normal, its irregular temporal and spatial distribution can be disruptive. The vagaries of climate change add to the concern.