Some loose ends in new Assam accord

The signing of the tripartite agreement between the central government, the Assam government and a faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) will hopefully put an end to the unrest and insurgency in the state. The ULFA (Independent) faction, led by Arabinda Rajkhowa, had already ended violence, and will now return to the mainstream. The agreement follows a decade and more of negotiations. Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma have described the accord as historic. Sarma has also said that it opens the door for the faction led by Paresh Barua, which has not been a part of the peace process, to join the talks. He also said that the ULFA(I) faction would take the initiative to engage with the other faction to persuade it to join the process.

The full details of the agreement have not been made public. According to available information, out of 126 Assembly seats in the state, 97 have been secured for “indigenous people” on the basis of the delimitation of constituencies. The next delimitation, when it takes place, will also follow the same norms and principles. The Assam Accord of 1985 had sought to address the grievance among the majority Assamese that their identity and political power were threatened by migrants from Bangladesh. The accord has not yet been implemented in full. The agreement does not make any reference to the compilation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC). The matter is before the Supreme Court now. Even if the latest agreement has endorsed the delimitation process, questions are bound to be raised about it as there are fears that constituencies will be demarcated to the disadvantage of some parties. The agreement provides for an investment of Rs 1.5 lakh crore in Assam over the next few years. Opposition parties in the state have described the agreement as an election-oriented exercise, claiming that it would not make any difference. 

The government’s expectation is that the agreement will give a boost to the development of the state as it will no longer be considered militancy-hit. Insurgency and violence have cost Assam dearly, and it is estimated that about 10,000 lives have been lost. The ULFA(I) faction, whose cadres are housed in designated camps, will now be disbanded and it will surrender its arms to the government. Yet, the exclusion of the hardline ULFA faction, which operates mostly from Myanmar, makes the agreement incomplete. Efforts must continue to bring it on board at the earliest. While a greater measure of peace is expected in the state now, a key test of the agreement will be whether and when the central government would feel confident enough to withdraw completely the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), which is in force in some parts of the state.