Imran’s arrest: Pakistan on the brink

Sections of the Pakistan military are known to be close to Khan’s powerful military adviser and are opposed to his arrest

The arrest of former Pakistani Prime Minister and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan on Tuesday has triggered a tidal wave of violent protests by his supporters across several cities. Violent protests are not uncommon in Pakistan. Yet, the ongoing violence is unprecedented in that PTI activists are targeting military installations. On Tuesday, Khan’s supporters stormed the country’s military headquarters in Rawalpindi and torched the residence of the Corps Commander in Lahore. Khan faces multiple corruption charges; his arrest came in connection with the Al-Qadir Trust case. Since his ouster from power in a no-confidence vote last year, Khan has led relentless protests aimed not only at forcing the Shahbaz Sharif-led coalition government to call early elections but also at pre-empting his own arrest. He stirred mass emotions by portraying himself as a victim of the collusion between the civilian government and the military. Few politicians have taken on the military as publicly and robustly as Khan. He stoked public anger and disrespect for State institutions. His supporters have now gone berserk. In his absence, there is no one in the second tier of the PTI leadership who will be able or willing to calm his frenzied fans. There have been multiple attempts to arrest Khan, but he had managed to evade them so far. On Tuesday, paramilitary troops smashed their way into the Islamabad High Court to arrest him. The shocking manner of his arrest has added to his supporters’ anger.

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Khan’s arrest will have far-reaching implications for Pakistan. He is a popular leader and the PTI is the main opposition party. Many expected it to win the upcoming elections in Punjab province and to the National Assembly. Will Pakistan ban the PTI for mass violence? Will it go ahead with the elections? What credibility would an election have if Khan is not in the fray? Pakistan is staring at multiple uncertainties.

The Pakistan military’s next moves will be significant. Sections of the military are known to be close to Khan’s powerful military adviser and are opposed to his arrest. This divide, which was already visible last year during the appointment of the new army chief, is likely to come to the fore now. Pro- and anti-Khan sections will differ on how to deal with him and his supporters. A military crackdown on protesters is possible in the coming days as the anti-Khan faction moves to quell the unrest and violence. In the past, civilian leaders who challenged the powerful military were either jailed or eliminated. This time, the Generals differ among themselves on how to deal with Khan. They could slug it out. Pakistan is on the brink of an abyss.