JOIN USWhat happened to gentle spring?
The optimism in the poet’s question “if winter comes, can spring be far behind”, does not seem to hold true now as many parts of the country are skipping spring this year. These areas have seen a surge in temperatures and have moved into summer-like conditions without the moderating spring interval. This phenomenon was seen last year also but it is stark this year. In 2022, an early onset of summer was seen in March with record temperatures damaging winter crops and creating a shortage. The effect of the fall in wheat output was aggravated by the disruption of global supplies due the Ukraine war which had just broken out. This year, a warm, dry weather is already here. Apart from the impact on crops and on health, there is a possibility of more frequent and severe forest fires, quicker melting of glaciers and drying up of water bodies. Power production and consumption will be impacted, and there will be many other economic consequences. The fall in wheat output last year was one major reason for the spurt in inflation, which has remained elevated ever since.
Western coastal states like Gujarat and Goa and coastal Karnataka have seen unusually high temperatures in the first weeks of February. They were 5-10 degrees Celsius above normal, and indications are that they will stay high. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had recently issued a heat alert for Konkan and Maharashtra, though it withdrew it later. It has said that temperatures in the wheat-growing areas like Punjab and Haryana have reached up to 28-33 degrees Celsius in the last few days, and they are much above normal. Seven states saw average maximum temperature reach levels seen in March at least on one day in February. In 10 other states, the maximum temperature was about two weeks ahead of schedule. Rainfall has been scant in the plains and snowfall subdued in the hills. All this shows that summer may be making a premature onset.
Some state governments have issued crop protection advisories, but they should be ready for intervention to protect the farmers’ interests and to provide for their needs in the new situation. There is the need for accurate forecasts, science-based policies, and real-time measures to help the famers. An early summer is not just a farmers’ problem, and governments should take a comprehensive view and deal with the situation in every area of impact. Last year, heat waves had killed about 100 people in South Asia. There should be a system of short-term policies and long-term strategies to deal with climate shocks which are no longer surprises and stray events.