Illegal Immigrants | India prepares for a Trump backlash

The fear of trade tariffs forces India to demonstrate enthusiasm in co-operating with the US on illegal immigration

Repatriation of illegal immigrants and trade tariffs are two bees in the bonnet of United States President Donald Trump that threaten India immediately.

India has little choice but to be open to the deportation of illegal immigrants from the US. Nearly 18,000 illegal immigrants from India are likely to be repatriated by the new administration. There is no other way for Trump to keep the promise made during his campaign and then reiterated in his inaugural address “to protect the American people from the disastrous effects of unlawful mass migration and resettlement”.

There are an estimated 725,000 undocumented Indian immigrants in the US. Indians are estimated to be the ninth-largest group of illegal immigrants in the US (6.6 per cent according to figures from 2022). 

It may not be practical to deport all of them to India, but symbolically at least Trump would have to send quite a few illegal immigrants back, although he may eventually realise that the US economy needs both low-skilled and high-skilled migrant workers.

The repatriation of 18,000 Indians from the US will seem huge if it happens in a short span of time. However, undocumented Indian immigrants have been sent back from the US in the past as well.

Even under the immigration-friendly Joe Biden administration, the US has repatriated over 160,000 individuals and operated more than 495 international repatriation flights to more than 145 countries — including India.

Over 1,500 Indians were deported from the US in the financial year 2024. On October 22, for example, the US Department of Homeland and Security in collaboration with the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement announced that it had “conducted a large-frame charter removal flight to the Republic of India of Indian nationals who did not establish legal basis to remain in the United States”. Earlier, between October 1, 2023 and September 30, 2024, the US repatriated 1,100 illegal immigrants from India.

However, because Trump has made it such a political issue, India has also projected its openness to deportation as a friendly gesture. Any recalcitrance on the issue would have cascading consequences on the legal migration of skilled workers (on H-1B) and on bilateral trade with the US.

India wants to protect the legal mobility of skilled labour to the US.

India has either Labour Mobility Agreements with various countries (e.g., Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates) or Migration and Mobility Partnership Agreements (e.g., Fance, the UK, Germany, Italy, Cyprus, Austria, Italy, and Australia, among others).

The Labour Mobility Agreements are for one-way mobility. The Migration and Mobility Agreements are for two-way mobility and provide a structured process of co-operation for returns and readmissions.  There are hybrid agreements as well such as permitting Indian skilled migration only across specific skill categories such as with Japan and Portugal.

The US has bilateral ‘work agreements’ with 130 countries including India. Except for some commonly agreed language, each one is unique. In India’s case, an offer of work is required, and short-term migration operates through the H-1B visa programme for skilled workers.

During the Trump campaign it became clear that his support base is divided over the H-1B work visas programme. Trump himself has blown hot and cold over H-1B visas, although now he seems to have come out in favour. However, there is still a concern that his administration will toughen up the H-1B visas policy.

This will impact India as Indian skilled workers are the largest beneficiaries of the H-1B visa programme. They cornered 72% of the 386,000 H-1B visas issued during 2023.

A tougher H-1B visa policy could potentially reduce the number of skilled Indian workers employed in the US and reduce the remittances sent to India impacting the economy and put pressure on the rupee. It will also force Indian IT companies to rethink their business model based on on-site presence in the US, made possible by H-1B visas liaising with offshore development centres in India.

The fear of trade tariffs also forces India to demonstrate enthusiasm in co-operating with the US on illegal immigration. India is likely to be among the nations that Trump threatens to hit with higher tariffs. Trump has already ordered the US Commerce and Treasury Departments to investigate the causes of the country’s “large and persistent” trade deficits. He has also announced the creation of a new agency the “External Revenue Service” as a complement to the Internal Revenue Service for domestic taxation, to collect tariffs from foreign governments.

In anticipation of potential tariff hikes, the Indian commerce and industry ministries have reportedly started an inter-ministerial dialogue to discuss the consequences of Trump’s ‘America First’ trade policy. Official apprehensions are not unfounded as only last month at a rally, Trump referred to India as a “tariff king” and “trade abuser”.

The bilateral trade relationship between the US and India grew to $120 billion in 2024. Indian exports to the US accounted for 18 per cent of exports in 2022-2023, going up from 10 per cent in 2010-2011. The US is today India’s largest trade partner with bilateral trade with it having overtaken that with China. However, in contrast to trade with China, the trade with the US is favourable to India, the trade surplus contributing to its foreign exchange kitty.

Higher tariffs imposed on India could destabilise some sectors of the economy and restructure trade flows.

Trump has also threatened imposing 100% tariffs on BRICS nations as the bloc, led mainly by Russia and China, explores avenues of de-dollarisation to reduce reliance on the US. India, has clarified that it only wants to de-risk domestic trade and not do away with the dollar. Whether this will be sufficient to appease Trump remains to be seen.

What is clear, however, is that in Trump’s second coming, there is going to be no free flow of capital, unless it is American capital, and certainly a more restricted flow of labour. Between US interests and the personal friendship being claimed by some world leaders, the Trump administration will prioritise the former. The eagerness to be seen on the right side of Trump is an attempt to soften the blow of the aggressive and insular policies of the new US administration.

(Bharat Bhushan is a New Delhi-based journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.