In Myanmar, junta makes a poll pitch

Myanmar has been engulfed in a brutal civil war since 2021 when the military removed Aung San Suu Kyi from power. Since then, the country has witnessed relentless conflict between the military, the ousted civilian government, and various ethnic armed groups. The military’s attempts to consolidate power have been met with fierce resistance, leading to unprecedented battlefield losses and allegations of severe human rights violations. In an apparent last-ditch effort to maintain control, the junta now plans to hold elections sometime after July this year. However, the fundamental question remains: will these elections bring peace?

Myanmar remains mired in civil war despite international pressure and prospects for peace appear grim. Four years after the military seized power, there is no visible negotiation space between the junta and the major opposition groups. The military continues to face significant resistance from the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) which is the armed wing of the National Unity Government (NUG) in Myanmar and ethnic armed organisations which control large swathes of territory. In turn, the junta has resorted to widespread repression, including airstrikes, artillery shelling, forced recruitment, and mass arrests, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

According to various United Nations agencies, the situation has deteriorated to alarming levels in terms of economy and human rights. The military’s retaliatory campaigns have led to mass displacement of civilians, with many being denied humanitarian aid, even during natural disasters.

Myanmar’s military finds itself in an increasingly precarious position. Today, it controls central Myanmar and major cities like the capital, Naypyidaw, while the opposition holds significant rural territories. The ongoing insurgency has inflicted substantial losses on the military, further weakening its grip on power.

The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) which tracks casualties and arrests linked to the junta’s repression estimates that at least 6,239 people have been killed and 28,444 arrested since the coup. The actual death toll is believed to be significantly higher.

Over the past year, Myanmar’s army has suffered unprecedented defeats on multiple fronts. Ethnic armed groups, particularly in the northeast near the Chinese border and the western state of Rakhine, have launched successful offensives, capturing military bases, towns, and key regional commands. These victories have severely weakened the military’s hold, emboldening opposition forces.

Faced with mounting losses, the military regime is attempting to orchestrate an election sometime this year. However, critics argue that such elections would be neither free nor fair, given the widespread repression of political opponents. Many leading opposition figures, including Aung San Suu Kyi, remain imprisoned while civil liberties have been severely curtailed. The junta’s announcement appears to be an effort to manufacture legitimacy rather than a genuine attempt to restore democracy.

Recently, the military government extended Myanmar’s state of emergency for another six months, citing the need for stability before elections can be conducted. However, no specific date for the polls has been announced. Given the current climate of violence, displacement, and human rights violations, holding a credible election seems highly unlikely. Many observers believe that the junta intends to use the election as a means to solidify its power rather than to foster reconciliation or peace.

Question of legitimacy

For an election to contribute to peace and stability, certain conditions must be met, including freedom of speech, fair political competition, and an independent election commission. However, Myanmar currently lacks all these elements.

Moreover, with millions of people displaced and vast areas under opposition control, logistical challenges to holding elections are enormous. Many regions remain active conflict zones, making it nearly impossible for voters to participate safely. Without the inclusion of major opposition parties and ethnic groups, any election is unlikely to be recognised as legitimate by the international community or by Myanmar’s own citizens.

Given the worsening humanitarian crisis and the military’s declining control, Myanmar’s future remains uncertain. The junta’s planned election is unlikely to resolve the country’s deep-rooted conflicts. Instead, it may further entrench divisions and prolong the civil war. For a sustainable resolution, the military must engage in genuine dialogue with opposition groups and ethnic minorities. Regional players, including ASEAN, China, and India, must play a more proactive role in facilitating the negotiations. International actors must continue to provide humanitarian aid to mitigate the suffering of Myanmar’s people.

The military’s strategy of using elections as a tool for legitimacy will not succeed unless accompanied by meaningful political reforms and power-sharing agreements. Without addressing the grievances of ethnic minorities, releasing political prisoners, and restoring democratic freedoms, any attempt to hold elections will only serve to deepen the crisis.

(The writer is an associate fellow in the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi)