JOIN USOmicron: Clinically milder but potentially deadlier
There has been a sudden surge in Covid cases across the country in the past few days. This increase can be attributed to the newest Covid-19 variant: Omicron. Preliminary research suggests this variant is less severe than Delta, which caused the second wave in India. The severity is reduced by 50-70 per cent, and patients have shown mild symptoms. However, it is proven that the variant is highly transmissible, meaning that it can infect a large number of people in a shorter period. Ignorance, misconception, and a delay in response could result in India's even more fatal third wave. With India still reeling from the effects of earlier waves and the economic crisis, a new variant, while less fatal, could turn out to be deadlier for the country and its people.
An increase in cases would lead to more hospitalisations
At the time of writing this, India witnessed 6,358 new positive cases in 24 hours. And, the total number of people infected by the Omicron variant stands at 781. States like Maharashtra, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh have started to put restrictions due to an increase in test positivity rates. Moreover, Omicron is around 40-60 per cent more transmissible than Delta. Data from several other countries such as the UK, France and South Africa has shown that it erodes around 60 per cent of population immunity accumulated from prior infection and vaccination.
The UK is witnessing more than one lakh new cases every day, despite most of its population being fully vaccinated and half of the people being given booster doses. India's population is roughly 20 times of the UK, with a fewer percentage of people vaccinated. During the peak of the second wave, India witnessed as high as four lakh new cases per day. The point of concern is that even if Omicron is less severe, it will lead to a larger number of cases and higher hospitalisation rates. There is a genuine possibility that the country can see more deaths than we had in the second wave.
Elections and Social Distancing don't go hand-in-hand
In February and March 2022, state Assembly elections are scheduled in five Indian states: Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa, and Punjab. With election campaigns and rallies at an all-time high, social distancing appears to be a distant dream. Almost every day, enormous gatherings and political rallies take place in these states.
In response to the Omicron concern, the Allahabad High Court has requested that the polls be postponed for a few months. It appears that the government does not share the court's concern. Furthermore, parties and social gatherings will increase with the holiday season around the corner, increasing the strain on our already limited and exhausted resources.
The collapse of our healthcare system
Our healthcare system was already hanging on a cliff. It is in a debilitated condition post the two waves of Covid. We have already seen how it collapsed in the second wave after increasing cases accompanied shortage of beds, oxygen, and human resources. Omicron will lead to a much higher number of cases in a shorter period, leading to a disintegration of our already overburdened healthcare system.
When hospitals become overburdened with Covid patients, all non-emergent non-Covid care is halted, resulting in the incapacity to care for non-Covid patients. There is also an added backlog of all the surgeries and services we did not provide to patients during the last wave. All those patients whose tumour removals or hernia repairs were cancelled during the previous wave have been suffering and are still waiting for their chance in the queue. Furthermore, hospitals are functioning with a reduced workforce as there is a delay in allocating postgraduate seats and around 45,000 doctors are unable to join the healthcare system.
Misinformation is an added bullet
We also need to understand that the narrative of Omicron being less lethal will lead to people being oblivious and reckless. Misinformation about the new variant may exacerbate the problem. There is a chance that people would not care about hand sanitation, sneezing and coughing etiquettes, and masking up. Entirely relying on preliminary reports showing milder effects can result in more hospital admissions. We have seen the consequences of being complacent in the past.
Unfortunately, we still haven't wholly discovered the behaviour of the new variant. A false portrayal of Omicron's treacherous potential can lead to more harmful effects that can put the citizens' lives at risk.
Lethal to life and the economy
The economy faced its worst performance in the history of the country during the first lockdown, and nearly 23 crore people were pushed into poverty. Although, lenient lockdowns in the second wave lead to lesser economic damage. The government may now be forced to restrict economic activity when the Omicron wave rises rapidly. More lockdowns and restrictions will lead to more households being pushed into poverty and more people dying of hunger. Another health shock is fatal to lives and the economy.
Increased chances of emergence of dangerous variants
Covid-19 is caused by a virus that uses RNA as its genetic material. Replication through RNA is prone to significant errors, leading to mutation. The consequence is a quick accumulation of mutations. Some of these tend to make the virus more lethal, more transmissible and more dangerous for us. The only way to stop this is to prevent more people from getting infected, thereby not allowing the virus to mutate.
The danger posed by Omicron is colossal. India must tighten its belt and upgrade the response to the variant. Efforts are needed in every direction, from testing to tracking to treating. Even if the symptoms of Omicron infected people are milder, the transmissibility has increased the risks for everyone. The first two waves' repercussions have been terrible. Only by taking appropriate measures and safeguards will we avoid such scenarios in the future. We don't have the luxury of downplaying Omicron. Our lives depend on it.
(Mahek Nankani is an Assistant Programme Manager at the Takshashila Institution. Dr Harshit Kukreja is a Research Analyst with the Takshashila Institution.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
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