Pakistan’s bid for relevance | Military diplomacy and strategic manoeuvres

After Operation Sindoor, India has established new conditions for dialogue with Pakistan, focusing solely on terrorism and PoK. As a strategic partner, New Delhi expects Washington to acknowledge these conditions and avoid hyphenating India with Pakistan

For Pakistan, recent developments, including the United States/Iran-Israel military conflict and the aftermath of India’s Operation Sindoor, have presented a new opportunity to reposition itself geopolitically.

Several developments, including the rapprochement with the US, US President Donald Trump’s offer of mediation on Kashmir, and unconfirmed reports of China’s sale of J-35 stealth fighter jets, have put Pakistan in the regional and global spotlight, much against the kind of infamy that the country has endured in preceding years. These dynamics have generated new frictions between India and Pakistan, which may be just one terrorist attack away from another military conflict.

Following the chaotic withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, Pakistan experienced a sharp decline in its geostrategic importance. For decades, Islamabad/ Rawalpindi had leveraged the country’s geographic proximity to Afghanistan and its influence over various extremist groups to remain relevant to Washington. However, with the Taliban’s return to Kabul and US’ exit from the region, Pakistan’s value to the West diminished significantly.

However, recent developments, such as the growing US involvement in the region, and the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict, may have opened the door for it to reclaim some of that lost leverage. In a rare development, the chief of the Pakistan Army, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, met Trump at the White House on June 18, three days before the US conducted airstrikes on Iran’s three key nuclear facilities.

While Pakistan tried to minimise the Iranian aspect of the meeting, there are indications that Munir, along with his intelligence chief and National Security Adviser Lieutenant General Asim Malik could have provided some tactical assistance regarding Iran. Unsurprisingly, after the meeting, Trump said, “The Pakistanis (referring to Munir and Malik) know Iran very well, better than most”, adding that they are “not happy”. Like Afghanistan, the geographical proximity of Iran and Pakistan would be advantageous for the US. This, of course, poses a dangerous gamble as Pakistan attempts to balance its relationship with Iran and its long-standing transactional ties with the US.

In addition, Pakistan has been trying to impress the Trump administration through unusual measures, such as nominating Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize, citing the role he played in negotiating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. Reportedly, Trump hosted Munir only after the latter called for the president’s nomination for the Nobel prize.

Furthermore, as the US seeks to secure diverse sources of critical materials amidst tensions with China, Pakistan’s resource-rich provinces, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, potentially provide an alternative to Washington. Notably, Pakistan’s military establishment is managing these parallel channels of communication with the US, with little to no involvement from the civilian leadership in Islamabad.

This pandering to the US has another commercial angle. The newly established Pakistan Crypto Council has partnered with World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency and decentralised finance company with significant ownership and operational ties to the Trump family. Their agreement aims to accelerate crypto adoption and blockchain integration across Pakistan’s financial sector.

Interestingly, while courting the White House, Pakistan continues to deepen its defence co-operation with China, including reports of Beijing supplying fifth-generation fighter jets, underscoring Islamabad’s long-term military dependence on its ‘all-weather friend’. This dual-track strategy reveals Pakistan’s desire to hedge its bets by maintaining strategic ties with China while seeking renewed political relevance with the US. Such a balancing act is not without risks, as it may place Pakistan at odds with both powers should their strategic rivalry intensify.

For India, the US-Pakistan reset in ties poses new challenges. Since Operation Sindoor, New Delhi has been in a diplomatic overdrive to mobilise international support against cross-border terrorism originating from Pakistan, particularly from the US. However, Trump’s inflated claims of brokering peace between India and Pakistan, offering mediation on Kashmir, and neglecting the issue of terrorism have almost given Pakistan a free pass. Moreover, it has enabled Pakistan to mask its defeat on the battlefield, and downplay India’s military superiority in the four-day conflict, which forced Islamabad/Rawalpindi to call Washington for urgent intervention.

This entire situation reached a point where Prime Minister Narendra Modi had to rebut Trump during their official call, asserting that the ceasefire was achieved through discussions between the Indian and Pakistani militaries, not through US ‘mediation’ or any ‘trade deal’ pressure from Washington.

Notably, after Operation Sindoor, India has established new conditions for dialogue with Pakistan, focusing solely on terrorism and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). As a strategic partner, New Delhi expects Washington to acknowledge these conditions and avoid hyphenating India with Pakistan. Since 2017, including the first Trump administration, India and the US have made significant investments in collaborating to counter China's growing dominance in the Indo-Pacific. Any renewed role for Pakistan in US security planning could lead to complications, especially if it empowers Pakistan’s military establishment or provides it with new leverage against India. Additionally, China’s expanding influence over Pakistan’s military modernisation offers Beijing indirect leverage over the regional balance of power.

For South Asia as a whole, the Iran-Israel conflict and ongoing India-Pakistan tensions present both challenges and uncertainties. The region remains vulnerable to external power dynamics, where global powers exploit regional rivalries for strategic gains. An economically fragile yet diplomatically active Pakistan can still undermine regional stability, especially if it secures new allies or security guarantees. These Pakistani efforts to stay relevant could inadvertently entangle South Asia more deeply in the global tensions. For India, these strategic shifts demand both caution and foresight.

Sameer Patil is Director, Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology, Observer Research Foundation. Sarral Sharma is a doctoral candidate at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH)