Congress faces uphill task in run-up to Gujarat polls

“Whoever said that we cannot spend all of Rs 1.4 lakh crore budgeted for 2017-18 till this Diwali. We have had too many challenges since Modiji left Gujarat but proper use of this money could come in handy to win back the lost confidence of a section of voters,” a senior BJP leader said as the ruling party prepares itself to the task of winning the state back in the run-up to the Assembly elections to be held in December, this year.

The party has dominated mindspace of the majority of the people of Gujarat since 1995. So much so that the people did not even hesitate to punish then minister Shankarsinh Vaghela who rebelled against his chief minister Keshubai Patel and even Keshubhai, when he was seen to be against his successor Narendra Modi.

However, since Modi moved to the Centre as prime minister in 2014, there has been a power vacuum. This has led to political turbulence in the state, both within and outside the BJP. There was power struggle between Modi’s chosen successor Anandiben Patel and his Man Friday and BJP president Amit Shah. Current Chief Minister Vijay Rupani is known as a mild man.

There were several other factors too which came as a setback to the BJP: the move to consolidate the OBCs against rising pressure from Patels, the Dalit uprising following the public flogging of Dalit youngsters by self-appointed cow protectionists, defeat in about two-thirds of local bodies to the Opposition Congress and ouster of its first lady chief minister in Anandiben, thanks political typhoon of Patel quota stir led by 23-year-old Hardik Patel. Then there is also issue of acute water shortage in many parts of Saurashtra, Kutch and North Gujarat. All this has left many in state BJP a little more than anxious.

The party knows this too well and that the only face it must still bank on is that of Modi and a poll strategy by Shah. “We now start with an advantage against Congress, which in the past had vote-getting national leaders in Indira, Jawaharlal or Rajiv Gandhi. Not any more. Modi and Shah are our mascots and who knows Gujarat better than these two leaders,” Jaynarayan Vyas, senior BJP leader said.

Over the next six months, both have scheduled visits to the state in a bid to achieve their target of winning over 150 of the 182 seats in the state assembly. The maximum seats that any party bagged in the state was Congress in 1985, when it won 149 seats under then chief minister Madhavsinh Solanki, father of current Congress chief in the state Bharatsinh.

Amit Shah has been regularly having meetings with the chief minister and top leaders of the party to microscopically monitor party preparations. In fact, the BJP began the ground work way back in June-July last year, asking booth level functionaries to prepare a detailed list of individuals who would man the booths, reach out to voters. It has also prepared a survey form for party workers to get filled across 47,000 polling booths in the state. The form includes micro level data collection on party’s reach, the perception of state and Central government’s policy amongst the actual beneficiaries.


Reaching out
A separate call centre is also being set up to cross-verify results obtained from a survey carried out in the field. The entire exercise would be carried out till June 5, 2017. “Everyone - state party chief, legislators, taluk and district panchayat leaders, workers - would participate and reach out to voters across all the booths,” Bharat Pandya, party spokesperson, said. This apart, it has put in place plans to create over 47,000 WhatsApp groups to reach out to the electorate.

Compare this with main Opposition Congress that still claims that “it is in the process of identifying workers” who would work at the booth level. The party also held a meet last week to emphasise on the need to utilise social media more extensively. “I urge IT cell workers to use social media in a positive manner to defeat those who are into spreading Goebbles’ propaganda,” Ahmed Patel, party president Sonia Gandhi’s political advisor, has said.

But that is not the only worry for the Congress. Its biggest headache remains its leader in the Assembly – Shankarsinh Vaghela. Vaghela, many claim, is unhappy and would damage the already divided house.

“Like Modi and Keshubhai, Vaghela is one of the three leaders who has pan-Gujarat appeal. The party has been ignoring him royally and it is a matter of time, either he or his loyalists would jump ship,” a senior Congress leader close to Vaghela said. This leader also happened to be one of the 36 Congress legislators who were present at Vaghela’s residence to pitch 77-year-old leader as the party chief ministerial face recently.

“For now, he is building pressure to get his pound of flesh, be it from Congress or BJP. He knows that no Congressman who has switched to the BJP has received any position worth his salt,” the senior leader said. However, officially, Congress continues to deny this. “This episode has been instigated by the BJP and the media. We are one and shall remain one in our aim to defeat the BJP,” Bharatsinh Solanki has said.

The minor positive for the Congress is the fall of the Aam Aadmi Party off the political radar in the state. The AAP, which was trying hard to take on Modi on his home turf, has suddenly gone in to hiding after its electoral performance in Punjab and Goa. This means it will be a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress in the polls. Whether it turns out to be a worthy fight between the two main parties or just a complete knockout, remains to be seen.