Gujarat local polls: Congress is sinking as AAP, Owaisi rise

A day after a somewhat “impressive” debut public event in Ahmedabad by Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) last week, a Congress MLA in the city resigned after his demand over ticket distribution for municipal corporation polls was not met. It was just another instance of massive infighting in the Congress emerging just when it was supposed to hit the streets as a team to seek votes.

Dissidence is said to be so deep in the party that it shunned public announcement of many of its candidates and chose to quietly inform them personally. While the Congress MLA resigned in what was claimed to be a pressure tactic, the BJP on the same day launched its campaign theme song, films, designer hoardings, anthem and the works to formally blow the bugle for the civic polls.

This is the crux of the difference in approach of the two political parties that are going to local body polls in less than two weeks. The polls are significant in many ways. First, it is crucial for both parties in their preparation for the Assembly elections next year. The results will help strengthen the ability to garner grassroots support. Second, it is more important for the Congress to keep its stronghold in the rural areas intact if it wants to remain in the game in the next Assembly polls. And to defeat the BJP, it will need to push harder in urban centres or municipal corporations, where its support base has been dwindling.

Gujarat is going to polls for six municipal corporations on February 21, and on February 28, elections for 81 municipalities, 31 district panchayats and 231 taluk panchayats will be held. In the last polls in 2015, BJP won all six corporations -- Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot, Bhavnagar and Jamnagar -- and a majority of the municipalities.

However, Congress did well in the elections to other local bodies. It grabbed a majority of the 31 district panchayats (23 out of 31) and taluk panchayats (146 out of 241). But four of the district panchayats later went into the hands of the BJP due to defections. In the last few years, such defections have marred Congress like never before. Last year, in by-polls caused by defections, Congress lost all eight seats it had held.

A ‘moribund’ Congress is said to have attracted Owaisi’s AIMIM and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to Gujarat. The AAP is once again trying its luck, this time a little more aggressively compared to its previous attempts, by carefully sending its cadres to areas dominated by the economically poor, Dalits and Muslims and mobilising them. It is believed that both parties are set to open their accounts for the first time, which will, by and large, be at the cost of the Congress.

For Congress, the stakes are higher in the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation -- one of the richest corporations in the country -- where it is likely to lose more seats with the advent of AAP and AIMIM. In 2015, out of 192 seats, BJP won 142 while Congress was restricted to 49, and one remaining seat went to an independent candidate. Political observers claim that Congress’ numbers are going to fall.

“Congress doesn’t want to fight and has no plan to do that. It has not had a credible face to offer to the electorate for so many years in the state. Its leaders are involved in infighting. More than Congress, it is AAP that is visible in public. Their (AAP) cadre has planned much in advance and are working hard. Although it is difficult to predict their performance, AAP and AIMIM are going to cut into Congress’ vote for sure,” said senior journalist and political analyst Hari Desai. AAP is ahead of Congress in its planning, devising strategies and selling its ‘Delhi model’ of running government schools and ‘mohalla clinics.’

Experts say that “winning is not a challenge” for BJP but it is trying to keep AAP at bay. Here, AIMIM being in the fray may help BJP. “More than a moribund Congress, militant-type opposition leaders (such as in AAP) could make BJP more uncomfortable in the corporation by raising issues that Congress has failed to as the chief opposition party so far.”

Analysts believe that BJP may improve its tally in the rural areas as well due to Congress’ inaction, despite the fact that farmers are unhappy with the Vijay Rupani government, besides a supposed anti-incumbency feeling. The BJP also faces threat from growing “dissatisfaction” in the Patel community, which has been siding with the BJP for long. There is a feeling that Patels have been sidelined in the current dispensation. The last Patel chief minister was Anandiben Patel, now UP governor, who was ousted after the Patel agitation for reservation in 2015. She was replaced by Rupani, a Jain. Similarly, state BJP chief Jitu Vaghani, a Patidar, was replaced by C R Paatil, who has roots in Maharashtra.

The results of the polls are going to test the capabilities of Paatil, considered a strategist and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s close aide. Paatil has been claiming that under his leadership, BJP will have its biggest victory in the state in the Assembly polls next year. Meanwhile, Congress doesn’t seem to be getting any benefit by promoting Hardik Patel, who shot to fame in 2015 by leading the Patidar agitation for reservation, as working president of the state unit. This, many say, is mainly due to the internal conflicts in the party.