<p>It has been three years since the fateful day of August 5, 2019, when the Narendra Modi government sprang a surprise on the people of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir by taking away its special status and bifurcating the state into two Union Territories.</p>.<p>The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was always ideologically committed to doing away with the special status of J&K with its separate flag and Constitution, land rights and the "state-subject" rights in education and employment. But its earlier governments led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee could not act so unilaterally because they were coalitions. Even Prime Minister Modi could not have moved so boldly for most of his first term because the BJP party was in alliance with the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP), helping it get its first taste of power in J&K. In August 2019, with no elected government in the state, the BJP was confident of pushing its ideological agenda under President's Rule.</p>.<p><strong>What has been its outcome?</strong></p>.<p>If the security establishment is to be believed, then terrorism has come to an end. All big militant leaders, it claims, have been eliminated, and no big terrorist attacks have occurred. At least one reason for this is that Pakistan is no longer in a position to escalate terrorist activities in J&K. Under pressure from the international community and desperate to get out of the Grey List of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), it has to be seen as acting against terrorism. Nor is the prevailing internal situation in Pakistan conducive to aggravating the situation in J&K. This is not to deny that thanks to drone drops along the Line of Control of pistols and grenades, small arms keep finding their way into the Kashmir Valley.</p>.<p>However, the Director General of Police of J&K, Dilbagh Singh, claims that the nature of militancy has changed. He made a statement marking three years of the revocation of Article 370, claiming that most of the identifiable militant leadership had been neutralised. He admitted, however, that the security forces now confront the challenge of "faceless militancy" where militants have no past record. According to Singh, the operational mode of the militants has changed -- "they immediately ask them (new recruits) to commit an act of terror. … once they are involved, it becomes a way of preventing their return to society."</p>.<p>Other security experts, however, see a different trend where a new militant is made to shoot someone and then asked to merge into normal society and lie dormant. They feel that such faceless militancy, where an individual performs an act of terror and then disappears into society, can be dangerous. These "small instances" of pistol shootings are also not insignificant as they strike fear into those willing to collaborate with the BJP or the Centre.</p>.<p>As for feeling more integrated into India, the people of Kashmir seem to see even fewer possibilities than earlier. The Kashmiris see that in the New India the BJP is trying to forge, Muslims are less than equal citizens: their food habits, dress and modes of prayer are targeted, their loyalty is seen as extra-territorial, and their politics tending towards extremism. Watching empowered Hindu zealots spew venom against Muslims only heightens their apprehensions.</p>.<p>Hypothetically, some Kashmiris may have gone along with the Centre had the events of August 5, 2019, been followed by a workable plan for restoring democratic rights with a clear roadmap to statehood. Instead, in the last three years, dozens of politicians have been jailed (now mostly released), and all separatist leaders locked up for good. Nobody is left to speak for the people with the government's brutal crackdown on the media and civil society activists. Neither the central government's attempt to generate 'grassroots' democrats through local body elections nor the effort to put together a credible pro-Centre party has succeeded.</p>.<p>Citing the reorganisation of the state, the Centre set up a Delimitation Commission, which predictably increased Jammu's share of assembly seats from 37 to 43 and those of Kashmir Valley from 46 to 47. Some Muslim-dominated constituencies were redrawn to change the balance of voters, the mainstream Kashmiri parties claim. The Commission also recommended reserving two seats for displaced Kashmiri Pandits and some nominated seats for refugees from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (mostly Hindus and Sikhs, referred to as "PoK refugees").</p>.<p>However, the BJP is reluctant to hold state assembly elections as an election could yet bring in a government that could pass an embarrassing resolution on the abrogation of rights under Article 370. The party is unsure whether it can ensure a pliant legislature. This is because even in Hindu majority Jammu there is perceptible anger against the BJP. The discontent stems not only from changes in land ownership laws but also because Jammu-ites find themselves at a disadvantage now with having to compete with entrepreneurs from the rest of India for market share, trade and even jobs. Even if two seats were given to displaced Pandits, the BJP is not sure it can win or control the elected legislative assembly.</p>.<p>Political discussions, however, suggest that the J&K Reorganisation Act 2019 may be amended again to further increase representation for both Pandits and PoK refugees, thus changing the complexion of the legislature to favour the BJP. One suggestion is that the Central government reallocates a portion of the 24 seats reserved for PoK, currently lying vacant, to the PoK refugees in Jammu. It may also give a seat or two to Kashmiri Pandits who migrated to other parts of India -- of the 60,0000 families that migrated out of the Valley, only 23,000 stayed in Jammu. Meanwhile, an organisation claiming to represent an estimated 17 lakh PoK refugees in Jammu has demanded that 8 of the 24 seats reserved for PoK be released.</p>.<p>With terrorism harder to monitor, the average Kashmiri more distanced from the Indian mainstream and the new architecture of democratic representation still very much on the drawing board, one wonders then what the BJP has achieved in three years.</p>.<p>(<em>Bharat Bhushan is a journalist based in Delhi</em>)</p>.<p>(<em>Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em>)</p>
<p>It has been three years since the fateful day of August 5, 2019, when the Narendra Modi government sprang a surprise on the people of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir by taking away its special status and bifurcating the state into two Union Territories.</p>.<p>The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was always ideologically committed to doing away with the special status of J&K with its separate flag and Constitution, land rights and the "state-subject" rights in education and employment. But its earlier governments led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee could not act so unilaterally because they were coalitions. Even Prime Minister Modi could not have moved so boldly for most of his first term because the BJP party was in alliance with the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP), helping it get its first taste of power in J&K. In August 2019, with no elected government in the state, the BJP was confident of pushing its ideological agenda under President's Rule.</p>.<p><strong>What has been its outcome?</strong></p>.<p>If the security establishment is to be believed, then terrorism has come to an end. All big militant leaders, it claims, have been eliminated, and no big terrorist attacks have occurred. At least one reason for this is that Pakistan is no longer in a position to escalate terrorist activities in J&K. Under pressure from the international community and desperate to get out of the Grey List of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), it has to be seen as acting against terrorism. Nor is the prevailing internal situation in Pakistan conducive to aggravating the situation in J&K. This is not to deny that thanks to drone drops along the Line of Control of pistols and grenades, small arms keep finding their way into the Kashmir Valley.</p>.<p>However, the Director General of Police of J&K, Dilbagh Singh, claims that the nature of militancy has changed. He made a statement marking three years of the revocation of Article 370, claiming that most of the identifiable militant leadership had been neutralised. He admitted, however, that the security forces now confront the challenge of "faceless militancy" where militants have no past record. According to Singh, the operational mode of the militants has changed -- "they immediately ask them (new recruits) to commit an act of terror. … once they are involved, it becomes a way of preventing their return to society."</p>.<p>Other security experts, however, see a different trend where a new militant is made to shoot someone and then asked to merge into normal society and lie dormant. They feel that such faceless militancy, where an individual performs an act of terror and then disappears into society, can be dangerous. These "small instances" of pistol shootings are also not insignificant as they strike fear into those willing to collaborate with the BJP or the Centre.</p>.<p>As for feeling more integrated into India, the people of Kashmir seem to see even fewer possibilities than earlier. The Kashmiris see that in the New India the BJP is trying to forge, Muslims are less than equal citizens: their food habits, dress and modes of prayer are targeted, their loyalty is seen as extra-territorial, and their politics tending towards extremism. Watching empowered Hindu zealots spew venom against Muslims only heightens their apprehensions.</p>.<p>Hypothetically, some Kashmiris may have gone along with the Centre had the events of August 5, 2019, been followed by a workable plan for restoring democratic rights with a clear roadmap to statehood. Instead, in the last three years, dozens of politicians have been jailed (now mostly released), and all separatist leaders locked up for good. Nobody is left to speak for the people with the government's brutal crackdown on the media and civil society activists. Neither the central government's attempt to generate 'grassroots' democrats through local body elections nor the effort to put together a credible pro-Centre party has succeeded.</p>.<p>Citing the reorganisation of the state, the Centre set up a Delimitation Commission, which predictably increased Jammu's share of assembly seats from 37 to 43 and those of Kashmir Valley from 46 to 47. Some Muslim-dominated constituencies were redrawn to change the balance of voters, the mainstream Kashmiri parties claim. The Commission also recommended reserving two seats for displaced Kashmiri Pandits and some nominated seats for refugees from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (mostly Hindus and Sikhs, referred to as "PoK refugees").</p>.<p>However, the BJP is reluctant to hold state assembly elections as an election could yet bring in a government that could pass an embarrassing resolution on the abrogation of rights under Article 370. The party is unsure whether it can ensure a pliant legislature. This is because even in Hindu majority Jammu there is perceptible anger against the BJP. The discontent stems not only from changes in land ownership laws but also because Jammu-ites find themselves at a disadvantage now with having to compete with entrepreneurs from the rest of India for market share, trade and even jobs. Even if two seats were given to displaced Pandits, the BJP is not sure it can win or control the elected legislative assembly.</p>.<p>Political discussions, however, suggest that the J&K Reorganisation Act 2019 may be amended again to further increase representation for both Pandits and PoK refugees, thus changing the complexion of the legislature to favour the BJP. One suggestion is that the Central government reallocates a portion of the 24 seats reserved for PoK, currently lying vacant, to the PoK refugees in Jammu. It may also give a seat or two to Kashmiri Pandits who migrated to other parts of India -- of the 60,0000 families that migrated out of the Valley, only 23,000 stayed in Jammu. Meanwhile, an organisation claiming to represent an estimated 17 lakh PoK refugees in Jammu has demanded that 8 of the 24 seats reserved for PoK be released.</p>.<p>With terrorism harder to monitor, the average Kashmiri more distanced from the Indian mainstream and the new architecture of democratic representation still very much on the drawing board, one wonders then what the BJP has achieved in three years.</p>.<p>(<em>Bharat Bhushan is a journalist based in Delhi</em>)</p>.<p>(<em>Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em>)</p>